000 AXNT20 KNHC 161703 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 103 PM EDT Thu May 16 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Sierra Leone near 07N12W to 05N16W to 04N25W. The ITCZ continues from that point to the coast of Brazil near 02S45W. Scattered moderate convection is seen along the monsoon trough and ITCZ east of 36W. GULF OF MEXICO... Surface ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1019 mb high centered near 31N86W. A trough is analyzed in the Bay of Campeche near 18N94W to 24N94W. Some showers are occurring west of this trough. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate east- northeast winds across the basin. Smoke continues to be noted on satellite imagery over the western Gulf mainly west of 90W. Weak high pressure will prevail over the northern Gulf through tonight, then move east on Friday through the upcoming weekend. This will support strengthening SE return flow across the western Gulf this weekend, with fresh to strong winds building seas to 8 ft over the NW Gulf by Monday night. Smoke and haze from ongoing wildfires in Mexico will reduce visibilities over the western Gulf and the Bay of Campeche over the next several days. CARIBBEAN SEA... A broad upper level ridge prevails across most of the basin inducing strong subsidence and relatively dry conditions across the eastern and central Caribbean. The East Pacific monsoon trough is enhancing shower activity in the southwest Caribbean off the Panama and Costa Rica coastlines. ASCAT data depicts moderate to fresh trades over the central Caribbean, while light to moderate trade winds prevail over the western and eastern Caribbean. Fresh to strong winds will prevail over the Gulf of Venezuela and near the coast of Colombia through Saturday as a high pressure ridge persists NE of the region. Fresh winds over the Gulf of Honduras will pulse to strong speeds over the weekend. Smoke and haze from ongoing fires in Central America will reduce visibilities near the Gulf of Honduras during the next several days. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front enters the western Atlantic waters near 31N61W to 26N71W, then becomes stationary to 25N80W. Scattered moderate convection prevails along and south of the front between 70W-86W. The more intense convection is seen between the Bahamas and Cuba. A surface trough is analyzed from 27N65W to 24N69W. Scattered showers with embedded thunderstorms are seen near the trough mainly north of 22N between 67W-70W. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin anchored by a 1029 mb high centered near 34N39W. The cold front will continue moving east across the outer offshore waters through Friday as high pressure builds over the northern waters. The stationary front will gradually weaken over the Bahamas today through Friday. High pressure will prevail across the northern waters Friday through Sunday, then lift north of 31N on Monday. A weak surface low will develop north of the Bahamas Monday night. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ AKR