000 AXNT20 KNHC 160527 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 127 AM EDT Thu May 16 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea near 10N14W to 03N25W. The ITCZ continues from that point to the coast of Brazil near 02S43W. No significant convection is noted near these boundaries at this time. GULF OF MEXICO... A weakening stationary front extends across the southeast Gulf from 25N80W to 25N85W. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin, anchored by a 1017 mb high centered near 29N87W. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate easterly winds across the basin. Smoke continues to be noted on satellite imagery over the western Gulf mainly west of 90W. The front will dissipate tonight. High pressure will build over the northern Gulf Thu through Fri, then move E Fri night through the weekend as SE return flow strengthens over the Gulf. Smoke and haze from ongoing wildfires in Mexico could reduce visibilities over the western Gulf and the Bay of Campeche over the next several days. CARIBBEAN SEA... A broad upper level ridge prevails across most of the basin inducing strong subsidence and relatively dry conditions across the eastern and central Caribbean. Convection over Cuba could potentially continue through the night due to the influence of the front to the north. The East Pacific monsoon trough is over the far SW Caribbean and Panama along 09N enhancing shower activity in this area. ASCAT data depicts fresh trades over the central Caribbean, while moderate trade winds prevail over the western and eastern Caribbean. Fresh winds will persist across the south central Caribbean through Thu, then diminish as a high pressure ridge weakens northeast of the region. Winds will be strongest along the coasts of Venezuela and Colombia. Fresh to strong winds will pulse over the Gulf of Honduras region through Sun. Smoke and haze from ongoing fires in Central America will reduce visibilities north of Honduras during the next several days. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front enters the western Atlantic waters near 31N63W to 27N70W to 25N80W. Scattered moderate convection prevails along and south of the front between 74W-80W. A surface trough is analyzed from 30N61W to 23N68W. Scattered showers prevail between the trough and front mainly north of 25N between 59W-66W. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin anchored by a 1030 mb high centered near 33N38W. The cold front will continue moving east across the northern waters through Sat while weakening. High pressure will build over the northern waters behind the front by Thu night, then gradually strengthen Fri through Mon. In the far eastern Atlantic, near the coast of Morocco in the marine zone Agadir, NE winds of near gale force are expected on Friday, according to the Meteo France forecast. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA