000 AXNT20 KNHC 152325 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 725 PM EDT Wed May 15 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2310 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea near 10N14W to 05N20W to 03N25W. The ITCZ continues from 03N25W to 01N39W to the coast of Brazil near 02S45W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are within 180 nm south of the monsoon trough east of 18W. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends from near Miami Florida westward to the central Gulf near 25N90W. An outflow boundary is present along 23N between 85W-90W south of the front. Scattered moderate convection is in the eastern Gulf near the front and the outflow boundary, mostly south of 27N and east of 89W. This convection is also over South Florida and northern Cuba. A 1018 mb high is centered near the coast of south-central Louisiana, leading to fair weather in the northern and northwestern Gulf of Mexico. Scattered thunderstorms over southern Texas and eastern Mexico are mostly inland, but could spread a few miles into the Gulf anywhere between Veracruz and Brownsville through the early evening hours as they weaken. Smoke continues to be noted on satellite imagery over the western Gulf mainly west of 90W. The nearly stationary front extending from Miami Florida to 25N90W will dissipate tonight. High pressure will build over the northern Gulf Thu through Fri, then move E Fri night through the weekend as SE return flow strengthens over the Gulf. Smoke and haze from ongoing wildfires in Mexico will reduce visibilities over the western Gulf and the Bay of Campeche over the next several days. CARIBBEAN SEA... A broad upper level ridge prevails across most of the basin inducing strong subsidence and relatively dry conditions across the eastern and central Caribbean. The East Pacific monsoon trough is over the far SW Caribbean and Panama along 09N. Scattered moderate convection is south of 11N between 70W-87W, including portions of northwest Venezuela, northern Colombia, Panama and Costa Rica. Thunderstorms farther north in Central America are mostly inland. Scattered showers and thunderstorms inland over Hispaniola will gradually diminish during the evening. Thunderstorms over Cuba could potentially continue through the night due to the influence of the front to the north. ASCAT data from Wednesday morning depict fresh trades over the central Caribbean, while moderate trade winds prevail over the western and eastern Caribbean. Fresh to strong winds will persist across the south central Caribbean through Thu, then diminish as a high pressure ridge weakens NE of the region. Winds will be strongest along the coasts of Venezuela and Colombia. Fresh to strong winds will pulse over the Gulf of Honduras region through Sun. Smoke and haze from ongoing fires in Central America will reduce visibilities north of Honduras during the next several days. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front enters the western Atlantic waters near 32N63W to 28N70W to 27N75W, and continues as a stationary front to near Miami Florida to the central Gulf of Mexico. Scattered moderate convection between 60W-70W extends from 90 nm north of the cold front southward to a line extending from 23N70W to 27N60W. This convection is being enhanced by upper-level diffluence. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are over the central and northwest Bahamas, South Florida and the Florida Straits. Lighter showers are near and south of the front between 71W-74W. Farther east, an upper-level low is near 19N50W with scattered showers extending to the NE and E of the upper-low. Another upper-level low near 26N21W is producing scattered showers over the Canary Islands. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin anchored by a 1026 mb high centered near 32N39W. The cold front from 32N63W to 27N75W will continue moving E across the northern waters through Sat while the stationary front weakens over the Bahamas Thu and Fri. High pressure will build over the northern waters behind the front Thu night, then gradually strengthen Fri through Mon. In the far eastern Atlantic, near the coast of Morocco in the marine zone Agadir, NE winds of near gale force are expected on Friday, according to the Meteo France forecast. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Hagen