000 AXNT20 KNHC 151807 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 207 PM EDT Wed May 15 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1720 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea near 10N13W to 05N23W. The ITCZ continues from that point to the coast of Brazil near 01S45W. Scattered moderate convection is along and south of the monsoon trough mainly east of 19W. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends across the basin from the coast of Florida near 27N83W to 25N89W. Scattered moderate convection has fired off along this boundary and is moving south into the southeastern Gulf from 27N-24N between 83W-91W. A pair of surface troughs are analyzed over the western Gulf. The first extends from 22N96W to 28N95W, while the second trough along the Yucatan from 19N93W to 23N89W. Smoke continues to be noted on satellite imagery over the western Gulf mainly west of 90W. The stationary front will weaken through tonight. High pressure will build over the northern Gulf Thursday through Friday, then move E Friday night through the weekend as SE return flow strengthens over the Gulf. Smoke and haze from ongoing wildfires in Mexico will reduce visibilities over the western Gulf and the Bay of Campeche over the next several days. CARIBBEAN SEA... A broad upper level ridge prevails across most of the basin inducing strong subsidence across most of the area. Scattered moderate convection is moving off the northern coast of Colombia and Panama entering the basin. The Colombian low has moved over the Caribbean waters near 10N76W with a central pressure of 1010 mb. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh trades over the central Caribbean, while gentle to moderate trade winds prevail over the western and eastern Caribbean. Fresh to strong winds will persist across the south-central Caribbean through Thursday, then diminish as a high pressure ridge weakens NE of the region. Winds will be strongest along the coasts of Venezuela and Colombia. Fresh to strong winds will pulse over the Gulf of Honduras region through Sunday. Smoke and haze from ongoing fires in Central America will reduce visibilities north of Honduras over the next several days. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front enters the western Atlantic waters near 31N66W to the Florida coast near 27N80W. Scattered showers prevail over the western and central Atlantic within 100 nm of the front. Moderate to strong convection is noted from 27N-24N between 70W-72W. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin anchored by a 1027 mb high centered near 32N39W. The cold front will continue moving SE across the northern waters through tonight, then stall and weaken over the central waters Thursday into Friday. High pressure will build over the northern waters behind the front Thursday night and gradually strengthen Friday through Monday. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ AKR