000 AXNT20 KNHC 151018 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 618 AM EDT Wed May 15 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1015 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Africa near 14N17W to 04N24W. The ITCZ continues from that point to the coast of Brazil near 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection is along and south of the monsoon trough mainly east of 33W. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends across the basin from 27N83W to 26N89W. A surface trough extends along 25N between 79W-83W. Scattered showers are noted across the eastern half of the basin mainly east of 90W. A pair of surface troughs are analyzed over the western Gulf. The first extends from 23N89W to 17N91W, while the second trough is from 27N97W to 23N95W. Smoke is still noted on satellite imagery over the western Gulf mainly west of 90W. The stationary front will weaken tonight. High pressure will then build over the northern Gulf Thu through Fri, then move east Fri night through Sun to support increasing southeast return flow. Smoke and haze from ongoing wildfires in Mexico will reduce visibilities over the western Gulf and the Bay of Campeche over the next several days. CARIBBEAN SEA... A broad upper level ridge prevails across most of the basin inducing strong subsidence across most of the area. Scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong trades over the central and western Caribbean, while moderate trade winds prevail over the eastern Caribbean. Fresh to strong winds will persist across the south central Caribbean through Thu, then diminish as a high pressure ridge lifts northeast and moves away from the region. Strongest winds will prevail along the coasts of Venezuela and Colombia. Fresh to strong winds will prevail over the Gulf of Honduras region through the weekend. Smoke and haze from ongoing fires in Central America will reduce visibilities north of Honduras over the next several days. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front enters the western Atlantic waters near 31N68W to the Florida coast near 28N80W. Scattered showers prevail over the west Atlantic in the vicinity of the front mainly west of 70W. The strongest activity is noted over the Bahamas. To the east, a line of moderate convection prevails north of 25N between 58W-65W. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin anchored by a 1025 mb high centered near 31N39W. The cold will continue moving southeast across the northern waters through tonight, then stall and weaken over the central waters Thu into Fri. High pressure will build over the northern waters behind the front Thu night and gradually strengthen Fri through Sun. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA