000
AXNT20 KNHC 150515
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
115 AM EDT Wed May 15 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0500 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Africa near 12N17W
to 03N24W to 01N33W. The ITCZ continues from that point to the 
coast of Brazil near 02S44W. Scattered moderate convection is 
along and south of the monsoon trough mainly east of 33W. 

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends across the basin from 27N83W to 25N95W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted across the eastern half of
the basin mainly east of 90W, with strongest activity over the
Straits of Florida affecting northern Cuba also. A pair of 
surface troughs are analyzed over the western Gulf. The first 
extends from 23N88W to 20N90W, while the second trough is from 
24N93W to 21N94W. Smoke is still noted on satellite imagery over 
the western Gulf mainly west of 90W.

The stationary front will weaken tonight through Wed night. High 
pressure will then build over the northern Gulf Thu through Fri, 
then move east Fri night through Sun to support increasing
southeast return flow. Smoke and haze from ongoing wildfires in 
Mexico will reduce visibilities over the western Gulf and the Bay 
of Campeche over the next several days. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A broad upper level ridge prevails across most of the basin 
inducing strong subsidence across most of the area. Scatterometer 
data depicts fresh to strong trades over the central and western 
Caribbean, while moderate trade winds prevail over the eastern 
Caribbean.

Fresh to strong winds will persist across the south
central Caribbean through Wed night, then diminish as a high
pressure ridge lifts northeast and moves away from the region. 
Strongest winds will prevail along the coasts of Venezuela and 
Colombia. Fresh to strong winds will prevail over the Gulf of 
Honduras region through the weekend. Smoke and haze from ongoing 
fires in Central America will reduce visibilities north of 
Honduras over the next several days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front enters the western Atlantic waters near 32N69W to 
the Florida coast near 28N80W. Scattered showers prevail over the
west Atlantic in the vicinity of the front mainly west of 70W. To
the east, a line of moderate convection prevails north of 25N
between 59W-65W. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of
the basin anchored by a 1027 mb high centered near 31N40W. 

The cold front will continue moving across the west Atlantic
tonight and Wed, then stall and weaken over the central waters Wed
night and Thu. High pressure will build in the wake of the front 
by Thu night and gradually strengthen on Fri and prevail through 
the weekend.

For additional information please visit 
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA