000 AXNT20 KNHC 142353 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 753 PM EDT Tue May 14 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the southern Guinea coast near 08N13W to 01N33W. The ITCZ continues from that point to the coast of Brazil near 02S44W. A surface trough extends from 05N46W to 00N47W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is along and south of the monsoon trough mainly east of 31W. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends from north-central FL to the western Gulf, from 28N82W to 26N90W to 24N96W. Strong thunderstorms are seen on satellite and radar stretching south into the western and central Gulf north of 24N-26N between 90W-92W. Scattered shower activity is also noted along the stationary front extending east to the eastern Gulf. A 1008 mb low is seen along the Mexican coastline near 19N95W with a trough extending north from the low to 23N90W. Smoke is noted on satellite imagery over the western Gulf mainly west of 90W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms over Cuba have moved into the northwest coastal waters from 22N-23N between 82W-84W. A stationary front extending from N of Tampa Florida to the central Gulf of Mexico near 26N90W to SE of Brownsville Texas near 24N96W will weaken over the Gulf tonight through Wed night. High pressure will build over the northern Gulf Thu through Fri, then move E Fri night through Sun to support increasing SE return flow. Smoke and haze from ongoing wildfires in Mexico will reduce visibilities over the western Gulf and the Bay of Campeche over the next several days. CARIBBEAN SEA... A broad upper level ridge prevails across most of the basin inducing strong subsidence across most of the area. Scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong trades over the central and western Caribbean, with moderate trade winds in the eastern Caribbean. Gentle to moderate trades are seen in the eastern Caribbean. A trough extends from the Colombian 1010 mb low into the basin from 10N72W to 16N70W. Fresh to strong winds will persist across the south central Caribbean through Wed night, then diminish as a high pressure ridge lifts NE and moves away from the region. Winds will be strongest along the coasts of Venezuela and Colombia. Fresh to strong winds will prevail over the Gulf of Honduras region through Sun. Smoke and haze from ongoing fires in Central America will reduce visibilities north of Honduras over the next several days. Northerly swell propagating over the tropical N Atlantic waters will subside by Wed. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front enters the western Atlantic waters near 31N71W to the Florida coast near 28N80W. scattered thunderstorms are seen along the cold front north of 28N and west of 78W. Upper level diffluence is also enhancing scattered moderate convection along the eastern FL coast. A pre-frontal trough is seen ahead of the front from 29N73W to 27N77W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection from 26N78W to 27N79W. Isolated strong convection is noted in central Bahamas enhanced by the upper level diffluence over the region. Further east, surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin anchored by a 1026 mb high centered near 29N38W. A cold front will move across the northern waters tonight and Wed, then stall and weaken over the central waters Wed night and Thu. High pressure will build over the northern waters behind the front Thu night and gradually strengthen Fri through Sun. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MTorres