000 AXNT20 KNHC 141754 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 154 PM EDT Tue May 14 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1719 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the southern Guinea coast near 09N13W to 02N28W. The ITCZ continues from that point to the coast of Brazil near 02S45W. A surface trough extends from 05N45W to 01N45W. Scattered moderate convection is along and south of the monsoon trough mainly east of 28W. There is also some showers developing along the northern portion of the surface trough. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from north-central Florida to the central Gulf, from 29N83W to 27N86W. From there, it becomes stationary to 25N94W. Thunderstorms are seen on satellite and radar across the Gulf stretching from northeast Mexico to south of Tampa Bay along the frontal boundary. Meanwhile, a pre-frontal trough is seen in central Florida into the eastern Gulf near 27N82W to 26N83W. A 1008 mb low is seen along the Mexican coastline near 19N97W with a trough extending north from the low to 24N91W. Smoke is noted on satellite imagery over the western Gulf mainly west of 90W. A slow-moving cold front extending from central Florida to the central Gulf of Mexico will stall and weaken over the Gulf today through Wednesday night. High pressure will build over the northern Gulf Thursday through Friday, then move east on Friday night through Sunday resulting in strengthening SE return flow. Smoke and haze from ongoing wildfires in Mexico will reduce visibilities in the western Gulf and the Bay of Campeche over the next several days. CARIBBEAN SEA... A broad upper level ridge prevails across most of the basin inducing strong subsidence across most of the area. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh trades over the central and western Caribbean, with light trade winds in the southwest Caribbean. Gentle to moderate trades are seen in the eastern Caribbean. A trough extends from the Colombian low into the basin from 11N74W to 16N71W. Another surface trough is seen in over the western Haitian coastline extending into part of the Atlantic from 21N72W to 18N75W. Fresh to strong winds will persist across the south-central Caribbean through Wednesday night, then diminish slightly as a high pressure ridge lifts NE and moves away from the region. Fresh winds will persist along the N Colombia coast through Sunday. Fresh winds will prevail over the Gulf of Honduras region through Sunday. Smoke and haze from ongoing fires in Central America will reduce visibilities north of Honduras over the next several days. Northerly swell propagating over the tropical N Atlantic waters will subside by Wednesday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front enters the western Atlantic waters near 31N76W to the Florida coast near 29N81W. Isolated thunderstorms are seen along the cold front north of 30N and west of 73W. Upper level diffluence is also enhancing scattered moderate convection from 31N-27N between 65W-70W. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin anchored by a 1025 mb high centered near 23N39W. A cold front will move across the northern waters today through Wednesday, then stall and weaken over the central waters Wednesday night into Thursday. High pressure will build over the northern waters behind the front Thursday night and gradually strengthen Friday through Sunday. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ AKR