000 AXNT20 KNHC 141010 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 610 AM EDT Tue May 14 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through coastal Africa near 12N16W to 03N26W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 02S44W. A surface trough extends from 06N44W to 01N45W. Scattered moderate convection is along and south of the monsoon trough mainly east of 27W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from northern Florida to the Big Bend then becomes stationary from 29N83W to 25N91W. Scattered showers prevail along the front. A surface trough is analyzed over the Bay of Campeche from 23N90W to 19N91W. Smoke is noted on satellite imagery over the western Gulf mainly west of 90W. The front will stall and weaken over the Gulf today through Wed night. High pressure will build over the northern Gulf Thu through Fri, then move E Fri night through Sat night resulting in strengthening SE return flow. Smoke and haze from ongoing wildfires in Mexico will reduce visibilities in the western Gulf and the Bay of Campeche over the next several days. CARIBBEAN SEA... Upper level broad ridge prevails across most of the basin inducing strong subsidence across most of the area. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh trades over Caribbean, with fresh to strong winds within 200 nm north of the Colombia/Venezuela coastline. To the east, a surface trough extends along 72W from 13N-17N with no significant convection at this time. Scattered moderate convection is over the S Caribbean mainly south of 10N due to the proximity of the EPAC's monsoon trough. Satellite imagery shows smoke over the Gulf of Honduras. Fresh to strong winds will persist across the south central Caribbean through Wed night, then diminish slightly as a high pressure ridge lifts northeast and moves away from the region. Fresh winds will prevail over the Gulf of Honduras region through the week. Smoke and haze from ongoing fires in Central America will reduce visibilities north of Honduras over the next several days. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Upper level diffluence across Florida and west Atlantic is enhancing scattered moderate convection mainly west of 69W. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin, anchored by a 1025 mb high centered near 29N39W. A cold front will move across the northern waters today through Wed, then stall and weaken over the central waters Wed night into Thu. High pressure will build over the northern waters behind the front Thu night and gradually strengthen Fri through Sat. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA