000 AXNT20 KNHC 140515 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 115 AM EDT Tue May 14 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Sierra Leone near 07N13W to 03N26W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 02N37W. A surface trough extends from 08N39W to 03N39W. The ITCZ resumes west of the trough from 02N41W to the coast of Brazil near 02N50W. Scattered moderate convection is along the monsoon trough mainly east of 27W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from the Florida panhandle near 30N83W to 27N87W, then becomes stationary from that point to 28N91W. Scattered showers prevail along the front. A diffluent flow aloft prevails south of the front mainly over the southern portion of the Florida Peninsula and adjacent waters enhancing scattered moderate convection east of 86W. A surface trough is analyzed over the Bay of Campeche from 24N92W to 20N94W. Smoke is noted on satellite imagery over the W Gulf mainly west of 87W. The cold front will stall and weaken from central Florida to the central Gulf Wed and Thu. High pressure will build in its wake. Smoke and haze from ongoing agricultural fires in Mexico will reduce visibilities in the western Gulf and the Bay of Campeche over the next several days. CARIBBEAN SEA... Upper level trough extends from the eastern Caribbean southwest to Panama with broad ridge building from the west inducing strong subsidence across the basin. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh trades over Caribbean, with strongest winds within 90 nm north of the Colombian coastline. To the east, a surface trough extends along 70W from 11N-15N with no significant convection at this time. Scattered moderate convection is over the S Caribbean mainly south of 10N due to the proximity of the EPAC's monsoon trough. Satellite imagery shows smoke over the Gulf of Honduras. Fresh to strong winds across the south central Caribbean will persist through Wed before diminishing. Smoke and haze from ongoing agricultural fires in Central America will continue to reduce visibilities north of Honduras over the next several days. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Upper level diffluence across Florida and west Atlantic is enhancing scattered moderate to strong convection along the FL coast and northern Bahamas mainly west of 73W. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin, anchored by a 1025 mb high centered near 29N41W. High pressure ridge will start to retreat eastward on Tue. A cold front will move across the northern waters tonight through Wed night, then stall and weaken over the central waters on Thu. High pressure will build in the wake of the front. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA