000 AXNT20 KNHC 132354 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 754 PM EDT Mon May 13 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Sierra Leone near 07N12W to 03N20W to 02N26W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 02N36W. A surface trough extends from the Equator to 07N along 38W. The ITCZ resumes near 02N40W and extends to the coast of Brazil near 02N50W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is along the monsoon trough from the Equator to 05N between the 11W-23W. Elsewhere, scattered showers are along the ITCZ and the surface trough along 38W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from the Florida panhandle near 30N83W to the north central Gulf of Mexico near 25N91W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is 26N-27N, E of the front to 87W and across the Florida Peninsula. Lightning detection is showing thunderstorms over S Florida due to inland airmass instability. A surface trough is over the Bay of Campeche from 21N93W to 17N94W. Broken to overcast low clouds are over the W Gulf W of 95W. Dense smoke is noted on satellite imagery over the W Gulf W of 87W. In the upper levels, upper level diffluence is over the NE Gulf and N Florida enhancing convection. A cold front extending from the Florida panhandle to the central Gulf will stall and weaken from central Florida to the central Gulf Wed and Thu. High pressure will build in its wake. Smoke and haze from ongoing agricultural fires in Mexico will reduce visibilities in the western Gulf and the Bay of Campeche over the next several days. CARIBBEAN SEA... Upper level trough extends from the eastern Caribbean southwest to Panama with broad ridge building from the west inducing strong subsidence over central and western Caribbean. Scatterometer data show moderate to fresh easterly tradewinds over Caribbean Sea with strongest winds along the coast of N Colombia. A 1008 mb low pressure is centered in northern Colombia near 10N73W. Further E, a surface trough is over south central Caribbean Sea and N Venezuela along 69W from 08N-15N, depicted by a wind shift. Scattered moderate to strong convection is over the S Caribbean S of 08N from the coast of Costa Rica, Panama, and Colombia. Dense smoke is over the Gulf of Honduras. Fresh to strong winds across the south central Caribbean will persist through Wed before diminishing. Northerly swell propagate over the tropical N Atlantic forecast zones will subside midweek. Smoke and haze from ongoing agricultural fires in Central America will reduce visibilities north of Honduras over the next several days. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Upper level diffluence across Florida and W Atlantic is enhancing scattered moderate to strong convection along the FL coast and N Bahamas. Most of the convection extends from 25N-31W between the 76W-79W near the coast of FL. Further east, a 1025 mb high pressure is centered over the central Atlantic near 28N41W. High pressure ridge along 24N will start to retreat eastward on Tue. A cold front will move across the northern waters tonight through Wed night, then stall and weaken over the central waters on Thu. High pres will build in the wake of the front. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MTorres