000 AXNT20 KNHC 131732 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 132 PM EDT Mon May 13 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Sierra Leone near 07N12W to 04N20W to 04N26W. The ITCZ continues from 04N26W to 04N35W. A surface trough is along 37W from 01N-08N. The ITCZ resumes near 04N38W and extends to the coast of Brazil near 01S48W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is 01N- 05N between 06W-18W. Scattered showers are within 180 nm of the surface trough. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from the Florida Panhandle near 31N85W to the north central Gulf of Mexico near 25N92W. Scattered moderate convection is N of 27N, E of the front to 80W, to include N Florida. Lightning detection is showing thunderstorms over S Florida due to inland airmass instability. A surface trough is over the Bay of Campeche from 22N94W to 18N95W, depicted by a wind shift. Broken to overcast low clouds are over the W Gulf W of 95W. Dense smoke is noted on satellite imagery over the W Gulf W of 90W. In the upper levels, upper level diffluence is over the NE Gulf and N Florida enhancing convection. A cold front will slowly move across the northern Gulf through Tue, then stall and weaken over the central Gulf Wed and Thu. Smoke and haze from ongoing fires in Mexico will reduce visibilities in the western Gulf and the Bay of Campeche during the next several days. CARIBBEAN SEA... 10-20 kt tradewinds are over the Caribbean Sea with strongest winds along the coast of N Colombia. A 1010 mb low is centered over N Colombia near 09N76W. Further E, a surface trough is over south central Caribbean Sea and N Venezuela along 69W from 09N- 14N, depicted by a wind shift. Scattered moderate to strong convection is over the SW Caribbean S of 10N, Panama, and NW Colombia. Dense smoke is over the Gulf of Honduras. In the upper levels, strong subsidence is over the central and western Caribbean. Upper level moisture is noted over the Windward and Leeward Islands. Fresh to strong winds across the south central Caribbean will persist through Wed. Smoke and haze from ongoing fires in Central America will reduce visibilities north of Honduras during the next several days. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Scattered moderate convection is over the W Atlantic off the N Florida coast N of 28N and W of 79W. More isolated moderate convection is over the W Atlantic N of 28N W of 72W. A 1025 mb high is centered over the central Atlantic near 29N44W. Of note in the upper levels, upper level diffluence is over the W Atlantic enhancing convection. Elsewhere, an upper level low is over the E Atlantic near 31N24W. Scattered showers are possible over the Canary Islands. Expect a cold front to enter the W Atlantic tonight through Wed night, then weaken and stall in the central Atlantic on Thu. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa