000 AXNT20 KNHC 131100 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 805 AM EDT May 13 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1040 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Guinea near 10N14W, to 07N14W, and 05N19W. The ITCZ continues from 05N19W, to 03N30W, to 04N37W, to 02N45W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 02N to 07N between 36W and 41W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 06N southward between 05W and 26W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 06N southward between 42W and 51W. A surface trough is along 31W/32W from 08N southward. Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 02N to 07N between 29W and 34W. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front passes through the westernmost sections of the Florida Panhandle, into a small part of Alabama, Mississippi, and SE corner of Louisiana, to the west central and SW sections of the Gulf of Mexico, near 23N95W. A surface trough continues from 23N95W to the northern coast of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 26N northward from 90W eastward. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers are to the west of 90W, and from 26N southward from 84W eastward leading into the Straits of Florida. The current frontal boundary will move slowly across the northern Gulf of Mexico from today through Tuesday. The front will stall and weaken in the central Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday and Thursday. Weak high pressure will build near the central Gulf coast on Thursday, and it will persist through Friday. Smoke and haze from ongoing fires in Mexico may be reducing the visibilities in the western and SW Gulf of Mexico during the next several days. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level trough passes across Hispaniola to the border of Costa Rica and Panama. Isolated moderate to locally strong are from 14N southward from 77W westward in the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea. Lingering rainshowers are possible across Hispaniola and its surrounding coastal waters. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers cover the area that is from 78W eastward. An upper level ridge extends from NE Venezuela, northwestward to northern Colombia, and to central Panama. The upper level SW wind flow that is moving across the Caribbean Sea is related to a combination of the wind flow that is to the east of the upper level trough, and the anticyclonic wind flow that is with the upper level ridge. A surface trough is along 66W/67W from 15N southward. Rainshowers are possible from 17N southward between 60W and 70W. 24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended at 12/1200 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.10 in Nassau in the Bahamas, 0.07 in Montego Bay in Jamaica, 0.04 in San Juan in Puerto Rico, 0.02 in Kingston in Jamaica and in Trinidad, and 0.01 in Curacao. Fresh winds will prevail in the Gulf of Honduras this week. The wind speeds are expected to pulse to strong speeds in the Gulf of Honduras tonight. Fresh to strong winds in the south central Caribbean Sea will persist through Wednesday, and then become fresh through the end of the week. Smoke and haze from ongoing fires in Central America will be reduce the visibilities north of Honduras during the next several days. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 25N63W. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is from 29N to 34N between 53W and 63W, and within 90 nm on either side of the line that runs from 21N43W to 25N52W to 29N60W. Isolated moderate rainshowers cover the area from 22N northward between 60W and 66W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are in the coastal waters of Florida and near the NW Bahamas, from 23N northward from 72W westward. A cold front passes through 32N23W to 30N24W. The cold front is dissipating from 30N24W to 23N30W to 19N39W. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers cover the area that is from 17N northward between 22W and 60W. A 1023 mb high pressure center is near 28N50W. Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from the cold front northwestward. A surface ridge extends from the 28N50W high pressure center to 27N63W to 25N72W, across the Bahamas, to 22N87W in the SE Gulf of Mexico. The current ridge will shift southward today, ahead of an approaching cold front. The cold front will move across the northern waters from tonight through Wednesday night, and then stall and weaken in the central waters on Thursday. Weak high pressure will build off the SE U.S. coast on Thursday, and track eastward along 31N through Friday. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ mt