000 AXNT20 KNHC 121802 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 202 PM EDT Sun May 12 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1745 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Guinea near 09N13W to 05N20W. The ITCZ continues from 05N20W to 02N34W, to the Equator 00N37W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection extend from 04N-08N between 12W-19W. Further east, additional scattered shower activity is seen along the ITCZ boundary to 30W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is along the ITCZ near the coast of Brazil the Equator to 03N and west of 43W. A surface trough is also present from 08N-00N along 48W. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front passes through the South Central Louisiana, to a 1009 mb low pressure center that is near 27N93W, to the coast of Mexico near 21N97W, and then curving northwestward to the interior part of northern Mexico. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are in the coastal waters from the FL Panhandle to South Central Louisiana extending out 100 nm from the coast. A surface trough is noted ahead of the front from 30N88W to 28N91W. Further south, another trough is present from 23N95W to 19N96W with no significant convection observed along the trough axis. Satellite imagery continue to show broad area of smoke and haze spread across portion of the Gulf from 90W to the Texas and Mexico coastal waters. A stationary front across the western Gulf will weaken through Mon. A cold front will move into the northern Gulf Mon, then stall over the central Gulf on Tue. A ridge will persist across the eastern Gulf of Mexico through Monday, and then retreat eastward through the middle of the week. Smoke and haze from ongoing fires in Mexico may be reducing the visibilities in the western and SW Gulf of Mexico during the next several days. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level trough passes across Cuba to central Nicaragua and Costa Rica. An area of broken to overcast multilayered clouds are present across the eastern Caribbean. Scattered showers extend from the Lesser Antilles to 77W. In the latest satellite imagery, smoke and haze are spread across the Gulf of Honduras moving into Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula. In addition, the latest ASCAT data shows moderate to fresh southeast winds across the Gulf of Honduras. A surface trough extends from southeast Bahamas across the Windward Passage to 17N74W. A second trough is seen near the Lesser Antilles from 13N61W to 10N62W. Scattered showers are possible in the vicinity of both troughs. Fresh to strong winds will develop early next week across the south central Caribbean. Smoke and haze from ongoing agricultural fires in Central America may reduce visibilities north of Honduras during the next several days. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1021 mb high pressure is center near 29N57W. The ridge remains in control across much of the Atlantic Ocean and extend south to 12N and west to the Bahamas. To the east, a cold front passes through 31N26W to 19N46W. Scattered showers are possible 60 to 70 nm ahead of the front. A surface trough is 70 nm ahead of the front from 29N25W to 20N36W. The ridge along 31N will shift southward through Mon then retreat eastward through Thu. A cold front will move across the northern waters Mon night through Wed night. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MTorres