000 AXNT20 KNHC 121044 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 805 AM EDT Sun May 12 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Guinea near 10N14W, to 05N15W, and 04N22W. The ITCZ continues from 04N22W, to 03N32W, to the Equator along 35W, to 01S36W, and to just to the south of the Equator along 42W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 02N to 09N between 10W and 29W, and from 03N southward between 40W and 50W. One surface trough is along 48W/49W from 09N southward. Any nearby precipitation is probably more related to the ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front passes through the SW corner of Louisiana, to a 1009 mb low pressure center that is near 27N94W, to the coast of Mexico near 22N98W, and then curving northwestward to 26N101W in the interior part of northern Mexico. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are in the U.S.A. coastal waters and coastal plains from SE Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere from 92W westward. Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 26N southward from 86W eastward, in the SE corner of the Gulf of Mexico. A cold front will move across the northern Gulf of Mexico from today through Monday, and then it will stall in the central Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday. A ridge will persist across the eastern Gulf of Mexico through Monday, and then retreat eastward through the middle of the week. Smoke and haze from ongoing fires in Mexico may be reducing the visibilities in the western and SW Gulf of Mexico during the next several days. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level trough passes across Cuba to central Nicaragua. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and isolated moderate rainshowers are to the east of the line that runs from SE Cuba to Jamaica to the east central coastal areas of Nicaragua. An upper level ridge extends from NE Venezuela, northwestward to northern Colombia. The upper level SW wind flow that is moving across the Caribbean Sea is related to a combination of the wind flow that is to the east of the upper level trough, and the anticyclonic wind flow that is with the upper level ridge. A surface trough is along 61W/62W from 14N southward, in the easternmost part of the Caribbean Sea. Rainshowers are possible from 16N southward between 60W and 64W. 24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended at 11/1200 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.52 in Guadeloupe, and 0.06 in Trinidad. Fresh to strong winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras each night through Tuesday, and then diminish to moderate to fresh speeds from Wednesday through Thursday. Fresh to strong winds will prevail through early next week across the south central Caribbean Sea, between the Colombian heat low and building high pressure in the central Atlantic Ocean. Smoke from ongoing agricultural fires in Central America may create hazy skies and reduced visibilities north of Honduras during the next several days. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 26N70W. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is within 180 nm to the north and NE of the line that runs from 22N50W to 26N60W, and then within 360 nm to the north and NE of the line that runs from 26N60W to 27N65W to 29N73W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are developing just to the east of Florida, from 27N northward from 77W westward. A cold front passes through 32N26W to 27N30W to 21N40W to 20N44W. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers cover the area that is from 20N northward between 23W and 70W. A 1021 mb high pressure center is near 29N58W. Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from the cold front northwestward. A ridge along 31N will shift southward through Monday before retreating eastward through mid week. NE swell in the far SE part of the area will produce sea heights to 8 feet from today through Monday. A cold front will move across the northern waters from Monday night through Wednesday, and then it will pass E of the area on Wednesday night and Thursday. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ mt