000 AXNT20 KNHC 120527 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 205 AM EDT Sun May 12 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0510 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Senegal near 15N17W, to 10N20W, to 05N25W. The ITCZ continues from 05N25W to the Equator along 44W, to Brazil along 50W and just to the south of the Equator. Scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are from 04N to 07N between 19W and 27W. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 08N southward from 17W eastward, and from 05N southward from 28W westward. One surface trough is along 44W/45W from 09N southward. Any nearby precipitation is part of the ITCZ precipitation. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front passes through the SW corner of Louisiana, to a 1007 mb low pressure center that is near 27N94W, to the coast of Mexico near 22N98W, and then curving northwestward to 28N102W in the interior part of northern Mexico. Rainshowers are possible from 22N northward from 90W westward. The current stationary front will linger in the western Gulf of Mexico through tonight. The front will move across the northern Gulf as a cold front from Sunday through Monday. A ridge will extend across the eastern Gulf of Mexico into early next week. Smoke and haze from ongoing fires in Mexico may be reducing the visibilities in the western and SW Gulf of Mexico during the next several days. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level trough passes across Cuba to central Nicaragua. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and isolated moderate rainshowers are to the east of the line that runs from SE Cuba to SE Nicaragua. An upper level ridge extends from NE Venezuela, northwestward to northern Colombia. The upper level SW wind flow that is moving across the Caribbean Sea is related to a combination of the wind flow that is to the east of the upper level trough, and the anticyclonic wind flow that is with the upper level ridge. A surface trough is along 60W/61W from 14N southward, in the easternmost part of the Caribbean Sea. Rainshowers are possible from 13N southward between 60W and 63W. 24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended at 11/1200 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.52 in Guadeloupe, and 0.06 in Trinidad. Fresh to strong winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras each night through Wednesday. Fresh winds across the south central Caribbean Sea will strengthen early next week before diminishing on Thursday. Smoke from ongoing agricultural fires in Central America may create hazy skies and reduced visibilities north of Honduras during the next several days. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 26N72W. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is within 270 nm to the NE of the line that runs from 23N52W to 26N61W to 27N67W to 29N74W. A cold front passes through 32N28W to 29N30W to 23N37W to 20N48W. A dissipating cold front continues from 20N48W to 20N57W. A surface trough is within 120 nm to the south of the cold front between 43W and 56W. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers are to the north and northwest of the line that passes through 32N23W to 23N30W to 20N40W to 20N70W. A 1023 mb high pressure center is near 32N59W. Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from the cold front northwestward. A ridge along 31N will shift southward through Tuesday before retreating eastward. A cold front will move across the northern waters from Monday through Wednesday, and then it will shift E of the area on Thursday. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ mt