000 AXNT20 KNHC 112333 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 733 PM EDT Sat May 11 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal Africa near 12N16W to 06N23W. The ITCZ continues from 06N23W to the coast of Brazil near 01N45W. Scattered moderate convection is along and within 80 nm on either side of the ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1009 mb low is centered over southern Texas with a stationary front extending from it to 22N98W. A surface trough is analyzed east of this front from 30N94W to 19N95W. No significant convection is related to any of these features at this time. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh southeasterly winds across the basin. Smoke and haze from ongoing fires in Mexico is noticeable spread across the western Gulf west of 90W. Reduction of visibility is possible west of 90W to the Bay of Campeche and the coast of Mexico. The stationary front will linger over the western Gulf of Mexico through tonight. The front will then move across the northern Gulf as a cold front Sun through Mon. A ridge will extend across the eastern Gulf into early next week. Smoke and haze from ongoing fires in Mexico may reduce visibilities in the western Gulf and the Bay of Campeche over the next several days. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper-level trough extends from the NW Caribbean to Nicaragua. Diffluent flow east of the trough is enhancing scattered moderate convection across the central Caribbean between 70W-80W. An area of moderate convection is noted over Costa Rica, Panama and northern Colombia enhanced by the seasonal surface trough that extends along 08N. Moderate to fresh trades are noted across the basin. Fresh to strong winds will pulse over the Gulf of Honduras each night through mid-week. Fresh easterly winds will persist across the south central Caribbean through the weekend, then strengthen early next week. Smoke from ongoing agricultural fires in Central America may create hazy skies and reduced visibilities north of Honduras over the next several days. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 32N30W to 23N41W to 23N51W, then becomes weak through 29N69W. A surface trough extends from 22N48W to 26N68W. Scattered showers are noted along these features. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin. High pressure ridge along 31N will shift southward through Tue before retreating eastward. A cold front will move across the northern waters Mon through Wed, then shift E of the area Thu. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA