000 AXNT20 KNHC 110547 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 205 AM EDT Sat May 11 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Mauritania near 19N16W, curving to 16N17W 09N18W and 05N20W. The ITCZ continues from 05N20W, to the Equator along 36W, to 01S39W, crossing the Equator again along 42W, to 02N46W, to 02N52W in Brazil. Scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 03N to 06N between 16W and 30W. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are to the south of the line that runs from 01N45W to 05N45W to 07N53W to 08N58W. One surface trough is along 40W/41W from 07N southward. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers are from 12N southward between 38W and 45W. A second surface trough is along 57W/58W from 14N southward. Rainshowers are possible within 90 nm on either side of the trough. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front passes through the SW corner of Louisiana, to the coastal waters of the middle Texas Gulf coast. The front becomes stationary, and it continues through the Deep South of Texas, to 23N99W in Mexico. The front continues northwestward to 28N103W in Mexico. A surface trough is about 100 nm to the ESE of the frontal boundary. Earlier areas of numerous strong rainshowers have weakened and dissipated. Warming cloud top temperatures and possibly lingering rainshowers are from 22N northward between 89W and 95W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 26N southward from 87W eastward. A trough will prevail in the western Gulf of Mexico, while a ridge will extend across the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Smoke and haze from ongoing fires in Mexico may be reducing the visibilities in the western and SW Gulf of Mexico during the next several days. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level trough extends from the Yucatan Channel to Nicaragua. Earlier areas of numerous strong rainshowers have weakened and dissipated. Warming cloud top temperatures and possibly lingering rainshowers are from 15N southward from 70W westward. The areas of clouds and possible precipitation are being stretched toward the northeast by the upper level wind flow. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are in Colombia from 05N northward. Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow also covers the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea and parts of Central America. Scattered strong rainshowers are in north central Guatemala. Isolated moderate rainshowers also cover inland areas from Nicaragua to the eastern parts of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. An upper level ridge extends from NE Venezuela, northwestward to the NW corner of Venezuela. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea from 68W eastward. 24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended at 11/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.54 in Guadeloupe, and 0.01 in Tegucigalpa in Honduras. Fresh to strong winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras each night. Fresh easterly winds will continue across the south central Caribbean Sea through the weekend, before increasing early next week. Smoke from ongoing agricultural fires in Central America may create hazy skies and reduced visibilities north of Honduras for the next several days. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front passes through 32N37W to 29N40W to 23N51W. The front is stationary from 23N51W to 21N57W to 21N64W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are within 90 nm on either side of the line that passes through 32N35W to 29N38W to 26N44W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are elsewhere from 22N northward between 40W and 80W. Rainshowers are also possible elsewhere within 500 nm to the ESE of the frontal boundary, from 50W eastward. A surface ridge extends from a 1022 mb high pressure center that is near 35N17W, to 28N24W, and to 22N33W. A 1026 mb high pressure center is near 36N64W. Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from the frontal boundary northwestward. High pressure in the western Atlantic Ocean will slide ESE through the weekend. A cold front is expected to cross the far northern forecast waters from Monday night through Wednesday night. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ mt