000 AXNT20 KNHC 102347 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 747 PM EDT Fri May 10 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2330 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through coastal Africa near 14N17W to 09N22W. The ITCZ continues from 09N22W to 01N29W to the coast of Brazil near 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the ITCZ mainly west of 30W. A surface trough analyzed north of the ITCZ along 40W from 02N- 06N. Scattered showers are noted along this surface trough. GULF OF MEXICO... A line of showers and thunderstorms is moving across the northern Gulf. An active outflow boundary is analyzed as a trough that extends from 28N93W to 26N95W. Another trough extends from 25N95W to a 1007 mb low near 20N96W. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms prevail north of 24N between 91W-96W. Scattered moderate convection is also developing over the Florida Peninsula reaching the adjacent Gulf waters mainly east of 82W. Smoke is seen via satellite imagery across the Bay of Campeche. Winds are generally gentle to moderate out of the south-southeast across the eastern and central basin. Winds closer to the convective activity can expect gusts near gale-force. For now, a frontal boundary remains inland in south/southeast Texas. Strong thunderstorms ahead of the front in Texas are expected to continue through tonight. A thermal trough over the Yucatan Peninsula will support pulses of fresh to strong winds over the south central Gulf at night. Smoke and haze from ongoing fires in Mexico may reduce visibilities in the western Gulf and the Bay of Campeche during the next several days. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level ridge prevails across the Caribbean, with weak surface ridging in the basin. Scattered moderate convection continues across Panama and Costa Rica enhanced by the seasonal surface trough that currently extends along 10N. Trade winds are gentle to moderate across most of the Caribbean with fresh to strong winds north of Honduras. Smoke is seen on satellite across the Gulf of Honduras. Fresh to strong winds will pulse over the Gulf of Honduras each night. Fresh easterly winds will continue across the south central Caribbean through the weekend. Smoke from ongoing agricultural fires in Central America may create hazy skies and reduced visibilities north of Honduras for the next several days. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front enters the central Atlantic near 31N40W to 25N53W to 25N66W, then becomes a surface trough from that point to 25N69W. Scattered showers are within 50 nm of the front mainly north of 28N. Elsewhere, scattered thunderstorms are moving across the Straits of Florida and across the Bahamas. A 1018 mb high near 28N27W is ridging across most of the central and east Atlantic. High pressure over the western Atlantic will slide ESE through the weekend. The cold front will continue moving east across the central Atlantic while weakening. The next cold front is expected to cross the northwest Atlantic by Monday night through Wednesday night. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA