000 AXNT20 KNHC 091649 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1249 PM EDT Thu May 9 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Senegal near 14N16W to 10N20W. A surface trough is along 23W south of 07N. The intertropical convergence zone reaches from 03N25W to 03S42W. Scattered moderate convection is evident near the surface trough from 01N to 04N between 23W and 26W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is ongoing within 90 nm south of the ITCZ between 35W and 39W. GULF OF MEXICO... Gentle to moderate southeast winds persist across most of the Gulf, between high pressure centered over the Atlantic and low pressure anchored over Poza Rica Mexico, along the coast between Tampico and Veracruz. Moderate to fresh southeast winds are observed in the far southwest Gulf, closer to the low pressure. Platforms over the northwest Gulf continue to report fog, with visibility restricted to 3 to 5 nm. Areas of smoke are also evident over the western Gulf in satellite imagery and in coastal observations, emerging from agricultural and forest fires over southern Mexico and northern Central America. For the forecast, a weak cold front will enter the far northwest Gulf this weekend accompanied by scattered showers and thunderstorms. A trough will develop each night over the Yucatan Peninsula, and support pulses of fresh to locally strong winds in the south- central Gulf at night and into the morning. Smoke and haze from ongoing agricultural fires in Mexico will likely continue to reduce visibilities in the western Gulf and the Bay of Campeche over the next several days. CARIBBEAN SEA... Relatively weak high pressure north of the region is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds over the south central Caribbean, and north of Honduras, with mostly gentle to moderate E to SE winds elsewhere. Buoy and altimeter satellite data show wave heights of 5 to 7 ft in the south central and southeast Caribbean, and generally 3 to 5 ft elsewhere. Scattered thunderstorms are active north of Panama, with isolated thunderstorms in the northern approaches to the Windward Passage and off the coast of central Cuba. Regional radar also shows isolated, fast moving showers in the trade wind flow off the Leeward Islands. Smoke from agricultural and forest fires over Honduras is noticeable on satellite imagery, enveloping the Gulf of Honduras, the Bay Islands, Belize and the southern portion of the Mexican state of Quintana Roo. For the forecast, fresh easterly winds will continue across the south central Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras through Sun before strengthening Mon. Smoke from ongoing agricultural fires in Central America will maintain hazy skies and reduced visibilities north of Honduras through much of the period. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A weak frontal boundary reaches from 32N38W to 1016 mb low pressure near 28N58W to 26N67W. A few showers and thunderstorms are active along the frontal boundary west of the low pressure. Farther west, isolated showers and thunderstorms are also active over the northern Bahamas, in part due to lower level confluence along the trailing remnants of the front through that area, but also due to divergence aloft related to an upper low parked over south Florida. Recent scatterometer data and a ship observation showed moderate to fresh SW winds north of the frontal boundary between 45W and 50W, between an elongated ridge situated to the south along 24N, and lower pressure north of the region. The same scatterometer pass also showed fresh to to strong NE trade winds farther south from 08N to 12N between 50W and 55W. These winds were due to a relatively tight gradient between the ridge and a lower latitude trough in the tropical easterlies, currently moving across far northeast Brazil into French Guiana. Seas are 5 to 7 ft over open waters west of 35W. For the forecast, a second front will move through the north central Atlantic and reinforce the front currently over the region. This will push the ridge along 24N farther southward through late Fri, accompanied by fresh to strong winds and seas of 8 to 12 ft over the waters north of 25N between 35W and 50W. The strong trade winds off Guyana and Suriname will diminish as the trough moves inland and weakens, but seas will remain as high as 8 ft in easterly swell into Sat. Looking ahead, a cold front will move off the northeast Florida coast by late Mon, and move eastward over the waters north of 25N to 65W through mid week. Farther east, clusters of showers and thunderstorms accompany a surface trough along 23W south of 07N, assisted by divergent flow aloft. Dust and drier air is noted north of the trough to the Cabo Verde Islands. Fresh to strong NE winds are observed off the coast from Morocco to Mauritania, between 1021 mb high pressure centered near 26N32W and lower pressure over West Africa. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Christensen