000 AXNT20 KNHC 082355 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 755 PM EDT Wed May 8 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2319 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 04N22W. The ITCZ continues from 04N22W to 00N36W to the coast of Brazil near 03S42W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is seen along the monsoon trough from 06N-02N between 16W-24W. Scattered moderate convection is along and south of the ITCZ from 01N-04S and west of 30W to the coast of Brazil. Two surface troughs are also observed north of the ITCZ. The first trough is noted along 45W and the other is along 35W. GULF OF MEXICO... Surface ridging is seen across the basin with some scattered showers noted moving into the Florida Panhandle. There is also convection right along the southwest Florida coast near Naples impacting the coastal waters. Otherwise, light to gentle easterly winds are seen in the eastern Gulf, with moderate to fresh southeasterly winds in the western Gulf, with some strong winds indicated on the latest scatterometer pass. High pressure will prevail across the region through Monday. A weak cold front will enter the far NW Gulf this weekend. A trough will develop each night over the Yucatan Peninsula, and support pulses of fresh to locally strong winds in the south central Gulf at night. Smoke and haze from ongoing agricultural fires in Mexico could reduce visibilities in the western Gulf and the Bay of Campeche over the next few days. CARIBBEAN SEA... Upper level ridge over the Caribbean is suppressing most convection--however some thunderstorms driven by daytime heating are noted across Cuba and Hispaniola. Strong convection is seen across Costa Rica, Panama, and Colombia with some of this activity moving into the southwest Caribbean. Trade winds are moderate to fresh north of Colombia, otherwise gentle to moderate trades are seen across the rest of the basin. Fresh easterly winds will continue across the south-central Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras through Sun before strengthening Monday. Smoke from ongoing agricultural fires in Central America will maintain hazy skies and reduced visibilities north of Honduras through much of the period. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front enters the central Atlantic near 31N48W and stretches southwest to near 27N72W. A surface trough is also seen from 27N74W to the coast of Florida near 26N80W. Showers are seen along the cold front. A pre-frontal trough is near 27N63W to near 22N70W. A small line of convection is noted in the central Atlantic from 21N-20N between 34W-39W. Scattered showers are also moving across the Cabo Verde Islands. A trough along along 27N will gradually dissipate through Thursday, with high pressure building in its wake. A cold front will move into the far northwest forecast waters on Monday. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ AKR