000 AXNT20 KNHC 081729 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 205 PM EDT Wed May 8 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1710 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Sierra Leone near 10N14W to 04N19W. The ITCZ continues from 04N19W. The ITCZ continues from 04N19W to 04N24W, 02N31W 02N34W and 03N41W. Another part of the ITCZ is along 01S44W 02N48W 02N49W. Scattered to numerous strong rainshowers are from 04N to 08N between 12W and 16W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 04N southward between 04W and 16W. One surface trough is along 32W/33W from 09N southward. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 04N southward between 27W and 42W. A second surface trough is along 42W/43W from 09N southward. Little convective precipitation is related directly to this trough. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere from 06N southward between 42W and 44W. GULF OF MEXICO... An upper level trough extends from SE Louisiana to the Florida Keys. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are between 85W and 96W, north of the line that runs from 25N85W to 28N96W. This area is between the Florida Big Bend and the upper Texas Gulf coast. Relatively weak high pressure across the region will allow for moderate to fresh east to southeast winds to continue across the forecast area through Sunday. A weak cold front is expected to begin to move across the far northern sections of the NW and north central Gulf of Mexico on Sunday night and Monday. A trough will develop each night in the Yucatan Peninsula, and support pulses of fresh to locally strong winds in the south central Gulf of Mexico at night. Smoke and haze from ongoing agricultural fires in Mexico may be reducing the visibilities in the western and SW Gulf of Mexico. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level trough passes through the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico, across the eastern parts of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico, to 12N91W. Rainshowers are possible in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea from 19N southward from 83W westward. An upper level ridge passes through NE Venezuela, across northern Colombia, to NW Costa Rica. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the Caribbean Sea. 24-hour rainfall totals, that are listed for the period that ended at 08/1200 UTC, according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES, MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC, are: 0.19 in Freeport in the Bahamas, and 0.09 in Bermuda. Fresh easterly winds will continue across the south central Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Honduras through Sunday. Smoke from ongoing agricultural fires in Central America will maintain hazy skies and reduced visibilities north of Honduras through much of the period. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front passes through 32N47W to 30N53W 29N58W and to 28N63W. A surface trough continues from 28N63W to 27N70W, to 28N75W, and to the coast of Florida near 27N80W just to the east of Lake Okeechobee. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 27N northward between 40W and 50W. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are within 60 nm on either side of the surface trough. Rainshowers are possible from 27N to 30N between 50W and 64W. A surface ridge extends from 34N09W to a 1022 mb high pressure center that is near 30N17W, to a second 1022 mb high pressure center that is near 26N35W, to 23N54W, and to 24N70W. The current surface trough that is along 27N will dissipate gradually through Thursday. Relatively weak high pressure will slide east-southeast through early next week, as a cold front approaches the southeastern United States. The front is expected to move across the far northwest forecast waters on Monday, preceded by mainly fresh southwest winds. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ mt