000 AXNT20 KNHC 071727 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 205 PM EDT Tue May 7 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1710 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 04N18W. The ITCZ continues from 04N18W to the Equator along 33W, to 02S38W, crossing the Equator, again, along 40W, to just to the north of the Equator along 46W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 03N southward between 20W and 25W, between 30W and 35W, and between 40W and 50W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are elsewhere from 10N southward from 60W eastward. One surface trough is along 25W/26W from 09N southward. Little convective precipitation is related directly to this trough. A second surface trough is along 36W/37W from 09N southward. Isolated moderate rainshowers are within 120 nm on either side of the second trough. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front passes through eastern Florida along 27N/28N, across Florida and parts of Lake Okeechobee, to the Florida coast on the Gulf of Mexico side near 26N, to 25N87W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 24N to 27N from 90W eastward. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 25N to 27N between 77W and 80W near the Bahamas and the coast of Florida. An upper level trough is along 94W/95W in the western part of the Gulf of Mexico. Scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are covering the Gulf of Mexico from 26N to 29N between 91W and 95W. The front will weaken and dissipate gradually today. High pressure building in the wake of the front. A thermal trough will develop each night in the Yucatan Peninsula, and support pulses of fresh to locally strong winds in the SW Gulf at night. Smoke and haze from ongoing agricultural fires in Mexico may be reducing the visibilities in the western and SW sections of the Gulf of Mexico. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level trough is along 94W/95W in the western part of the Gulf of Mexico. Upper level SW wind flow is moving across the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea. Upper level moisture is streaming across parts of Honduras and Nicaragua, into the Caribbean Sea, from 14N northward from Jamaica westward. An upper level ridge passes through NE Venezuela, across northern Colombia, to 08N86W about 100 nm off the coast of Costa Rica. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the rest of the Caribbean Sea, away from the NW corner of the area. 24-hour rainfall totals, that are listed for the period that ended at 07/1200 UTC, according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES, MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC, are: 0.47 in Bermuda, 0.34 in San Juan in Puerto Rico, 0.06 in Guadeloupe, and 0.01 in St. Thomas in the Virgin Islands and in Veracruz in Mexico. Fresh to strong easterly winds will prevail in the south central Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Honduras mid week, before diminishing. Smoke from ongoing agricultural fires across Central America will produce hazy skies and it may be reducing the visibilities north of Honduras. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front passes through 32N63W, to 30N70W, to the eastern coast of Florida along 27N/28N, and into the Gulf of Mexico. The front is weakening with time. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are within 45 nm on either side of the line that passes through 32N57W to 30N64W, and from 25N to 27N between 77W and 80W near the Bahamas and the coast of Florida. Rainshowers are elsewhere within 90 nm on either side of the line from 30N64W to 28N71W to 27N76W. A surface ridge extends from a 1021 mb high pressure center that is near 35N11W, through 32N17W, to a 1022 mb high pressure center that is near 26N31W, to a second 1022 mb high pressure center that is near 26N52W. The ridge continues from the second 1022 mb high pressure center toward the Bahamas. The current cold front will dissipate through today, as it shifts eastward across the waters north of 27N through mid week. High pressure will build across the forecast area in the wake of the front. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ mt