000 AXNT20 KNHC 060440 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1240 AM EDT Mon May 6 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough remains over land across Africa. A surface trough extends from 09N17W to 01N17W. A second trough extends from 05N27W to 02S27W. Scattered showers prevail along the troughs. The ITCZ is analyzed from 02N26W to 00N50W. Isolated moderate convection is from 03N-08S between 29W-45W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from N Florida near 31N84W to the central Gulf of Mexico near 25N90W to S Texas near 26N97W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm of the front. A surface trough extends from the SE Gulf near 22N89W to the Yucatan Peninsula near 18N90W to Guatemala near 15N91W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 15N-24N between 86W-92W. In the upper levels, a trough is over the western Gulf enhancing convection. The front will begin to slowly move southeastward across the eastern Gulf as a weak cold front Mon through Tue while weakening. A high pressure ridge will build northeast of the region through Wed night, then shift east-southeast Thu through Fri night as a weak cold front approaches eastern Texas. Diurnal trough development over the Yucatan Peninsula will support pulses of fresh to locally strong winds in the SW Gulf Mon through Thu. Areas of haze from ongoing agricultural fires in Mexico could reduce visibilities in the western Gulf and the Bay of Campeche through early next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... 15-25 kt tradewinds are over the Caribbean Sea with strongest winds along the coast of N Colombia. Scattered moderate to strong convection is over the Yucatan Peninsula, Belize, Guatemala, the Gulf of Honduras, and W Honduras. Widely scattered moderate convection is also over N Colombia. In the upper levels, a ridge is over the Caribbean with upper level moisture. The pressure gradient between high pressure northeast of the region and low pressure over Colombia will support strong easterly winds in the south-central Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras through Tue. Winds will diminish and seas will gradually subside through mid week as the high shifts eastward and the gradient weakens over the area. Smoke and haze from ongoing agricultural fires could reduce visibilities in the Gulf of Honduras region through the next few days. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1023 mb high is centered over the central Atlantic near 27N54W. A stationary front extends across the eastern Atlantic from 31N25W to 26N39W. A 1022 mb high is centered over the E Atlantic near 27N25W. High pressure will shift eastward and weaken through Wed night. Fresh south to southwest winds will prevail over the northern offshore through Mon ahead of an approaching cold front. The cold front will move into the northern waters on Mon night and continue southward through Tue while weakening. High pressure will build north of the region Wed through Fri night. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa