000 AXNT20 KNHC 052322 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 722 PM EDT Sun May 5 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough remains over land across Africa. A surface trough extends from 09N15W to 01N15W. A second trough extends from 09N23W to 01N24W. Scattered showers prevail along the troughs. The ITCZ is analyzed from 02N26W to 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends from 30N86W to 26N91W to 27N97W. The combination of the front and a mid to upper-level trough over the western Gulf is resulting in numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms over much of the NE, central and SW Gulf waters. This activity is likely producing strong gusty winds and frequent lightning. The stationary front will begin to slowly move southeastward across the eastern Gulf as a weak cold front on Mon through Tue while weakening. A high pressure ridge will build northeast of the region through Wed night, then shift east-southeast Thu through Fri night as a weak cold front approaches eastern Texas. Diurnal trough development over the Yucatan Peninsula will support pulses of fresh to locally strong winds in the SW Gulf Mon through Thu. Areas of haze from ongoing agricultural fires in Mexico could reduce visibilities in the western Gulf and the Bay of Campeche. CARIBBEAN SEA... Surface ridging prevails across the basin. A line of moderate convection has developed over the Yucatan Peninsula and is spreading over portions of Honduras and adjacent waters. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh easterly winds across the basin, with slightly stronger winds across the waters within 90 nm north of the Colombian coast. The pressure gradient between high pressure northeast of the region and low pressure over Colombia will support strong easterly winds in the south-central Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras through Tue. Winds will diminish and seas will gradually subside through mid week as the high shifts eastward and the gradient weakens over the area. Smoke and haze from ongoing agricultural fires could reduce visibilities in the Gulf of Honduras region through the next few days. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Scattered moderate convection prevail over the west Atlantic mainly west of 77W. To the east, a 1022 mb high is centered near 27N56W. A cold front extends across the eastern Atlantic from 31N26W to 24N45W. The remnants of a front were analyzed as a surface trough that extends from 31N24W to 22N45W. No significant convection is related to any of these features. High pressure will shift eastward and weaken through Wed night. Fresh south to southwest winds will prevail over the northern offshore through Mon ahead of an approaching cold front. The cold front will move into the northern waters on Mon night and continue southward through Tue while weakening. High pressure will build north of the region Wed through Fri night. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA