000 AXNT20 KNHC 050905 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 505 AM EDT Sun May 5 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1045 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Guinea near 10N13W to 02N19W. The ITCZ continues from 02N19W to 02S30W to the coast of Brazil near 02S45W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 00N-04N between 17W-22W. Isolated moderate convection is from 03N-03S between 33W-43W. GULF OF MEXICO... As of 05/0900 UTC, a squall line extends across N Florida near 31N83W to the NE Gulf of Mexico near 28N84W. Scattered moderate convection is within 45 nm of the squall line. A cold front extends from SE Mississippi near 30N89W to S Texas near 28N97W. Patches of scattered moderate convection is over the warm sector of the front from 26N-29N between 87W-90W, and from 16N-28N between 94W-101W. This convection is mostly due to upper level diffluence. 10-15 kt SE return flow is E of the cold front. Strongest winds are along the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Thunderstorms associated with a squall line in the NE Gulf will produce strong gusty winds and frequent lightning. A weak cold front in the NW Gulf will become stationary tonight and weaken to a trough Mon. Weak ridging northeast of the region will produce gentle winds and placid sea conditions for the next several days. Smoke and haze from ongoing agricultural fires in Mexico could reduce visibilities in the western Gulf and the Bay of Campeche. CARIBBEAN SEA... 15-25 kt tradewinds are over the Caribbean Sea with strongest winds along the coast of N Colombia. Scattered moderate convection is inland over the Yucatan Peninsula from 17N-19N between 87W-91W. Scattered showers are over Central America, the SW Caribbean, and the central Caribbean, S of 17N between 72W-87W. In the upper levels, a ridge is over the Caribbean E of 81W. The pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and low pressure over Colombia will support strong easterly winds in the south-central Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras through Mon. Winds will diminish and decrease in coverage Tue and Wed as the high shifts eastward and the gradient weakens. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1023 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near 28N57W. A pair of fronts are over the central Atlantic. A cold front extends from 31N31W to 26N44W to 30N52W. A dissipating cold front extends from 31N28W to 25N37W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the fronts. A 1023 mb high is centered over the E Atlantic near 27N24W. Expect for the cold fronts in the central Atlantic to continue moving east while weakening. High pressure centered near 28N57W will shift eastward and weaken through Mon. A weak cold front will approach northern forecast waters on Mon, then push eastward into the west- central Atlantic Tue through Wed night. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa