000 AXNT20 KNHC 050501 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 101 AM EDT Sun May 5 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 01N22W. The ITCZ continues from 01N22W to 02S30W to the coast of Brazil near 01S45W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 01N-05N between 16W-21W. Isolated moderate convection is from 03N-03S between 34W-40W. GULF OF MEXICO... As of 05/0300 UTC, a squall line extends across N Florida near 31N84W to the NE Gulf of Mexico near 29N84W. Scattered moderate convection is within 45 nm of the squall line. A cold front extends from SE Louisiana near 29N91W to S Texas near 28N97W. Patches of scattered moderate convection is over the warm sector of the front from 26N-29N between 88W-91W, and from 16N-27N between 94W-100W. This convection is mostly due to upper level diffluence. 10-15 kt SE return flow is E of the cold front. Strongest winds are along the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. The squall line will rapidly move across the rest of the central and northeast Gulf tonight. A weak cold front along the Texas coast will move across the NW and north-central Gulf tonight and become stationary through Sun night and weaken to a trough Mon. Otherwise, weak ridging northeast of the Gulf will produce gentle winds and placid sea conditions into next week. Diurnal trough development over the Yucatan Peninsula will support pulses of fresh winds in the SW Gulf next week. Smoke and haze from ongoing agricultural fires in Mexico could reduce visibilities in the western Gulf and the Bay of Campeche. CARIBBEAN SEA... 15-25 kt tradewinds are over the Caribbean Sea with strongest winds along the coast of N Colombia. Scattered moderate convection is inland over the Yucatan Peninsula from 17N-19N between 87W-91W. Scattered showers are over Central America, the SW Caribbean, and the central Caribbean, S of 17N between 72W-87W. In the upper levels, a ridge is over the Caribbean E of 81W. The pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and low pressure over Colombia will maintain strong easterly winds across the south-central Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras through Mon, at which time winds will diminish and decrease in areal coverage as the high pressure shifts eastward and the pressure gradient weakens. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1023 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near 28N57W. A pair of fronts are over the central Atlantic. A cold front extends from 31N31W to 26N44W to 30N52W. A dissipating cold front extends from 31N28W to 25N37W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the fronts. A 1023 mb high is centered over the E Atlantic near 27N24W. Expect for the cold fronts in the central Atlantic to continue moving east while weakening. The high pressure southeast of Bermuda will support pulses of fresh to locally strong winds north of Hispaniola through Sun evening. The high will shift eastward Mon through Tue as developing low pressure off the Mid-Atlantic coast pushes a cold front toward the northern forecast waters. This cold front will move southeast into the northern offshore waters Tue, then continue crossing the west-central Atlantic Tue night through Wed night and dissipate Thu. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa