000 AXNT20 KNHC 050004 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 804 PM EDT Sat May 4 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Sierra Leone near 09N13W to 06N15W. A surface trough extends from 08N16W to 03N17W. The monsoon trough resumes west of this feature from 03N18W to 02N21W. The ITCZ continues from 02N21W to the coast of Brazil near 01S45W. Scattered moderate convection is noted with the surface trough between 13W-20W. GULF OF MEXICO... An upper level trough is moving through the easternmost parts of Texas supporting a low pressure system currently centered near 32N92W. A squall line extends across the north-central Gulf waters from 30N89W to 27N91W. Scattered moderate convection prevails north of 27N between 86W-92W. To the southwest, a surface trough extends along 95W from 21N-23N with scattered showers. A shortwave trough aloft extends along 83W, enhancing convection across eastern Florida. Latest scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate southeasterly winds across the whole basin. The squall line will rapidly move across the rest of the central and northeast Gulf through tonight. A weak cold front along the Texas coast will move across the NW and north-central Gulf tonight and become stationary through Sun night and weaken to a trough Mon. Otherwise, weak ridging northeast of the Gulf will produce gentle winds and placid sea conditions into next week. Diurnal trough development over the Yucatan Peninsula will support pulses of fresh winds in the SW Gulf next week. Smoke and haze from ongoing agricultural fires in Mexico could reduce visibilities in the western Gulf and the Bay of Campeche. CARIBBEAN SEA... An shortwave trough aloft extends along 83W enhancing convection across Cuba and adjacent waters. Scattered moderate convection is also noted over Costa Rica and Panama, affecting their adjacent Caribbean waters south of 10N. Surface ridging prevails elsewhere. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh easterly winds across the basin. A small area of strong winds prevails south of 14N between 74W-78W. The pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and low pressure over Colombia will maintain strong easterly winds across the south-central Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras through Mon, at which time winds will diminish and decrease in areal coverage as the high pressure shifts eastward and the pressure gradient weakens. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A shortwave trough aloft extends along 83W, enhancing convection across eastern Florida. This activity is reaching the west Atlantic waters, mainly west of 79W. A 1022 mb surface high is centered near 29N61W. To the east, a pair of cold fronts are entering the central Atlantic waters. The first extends from 31N29W to 24N41W, while the second one is from 31N34W to 28N42W to 31N52W. No significant convection is noted with any of these fronts. Expect for the cold fronts in the central Atlantic to continue moving east while weakening. The high pressure southeast of Bermuda will support pulses of fresh to locally strong winds north of Hispaniola through Sun evening. The high will shift eastward Mon through Tue as developing low pressure off the Mid-Atlantic coast pushes a cold front toward the northern forecast waters. This cold front will move southeast into the northern offshore waters Tue, then continue crossing the west- central Atlantic Tue night through Wed night and dissipate Thu. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA