000 AXNT20 KNHC 040910 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 510 AM EDT Sat May 4 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1045 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 02N21W. The ITCZ continues from 02N21W to 02N30W to the coast of Brazil near 01S46W. Widely scattered moderate convection is S of the monsoon trough from 01N-08N between 09W-14W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front is still inland over S Texas. A squall line is over the NW Gulf of Mexico from 31N95W to 27N95W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is within 60 nm of the squall line. Widely scattered moderate convection is elsewhere over the NW Gulf N of 27N and W of 91W. Further E, scattered showers are over the Straits of Florida and W Cuba. The Gulf of Mexico E of the squall line has 5-15 kt SW return flow with strongest winds over the W Gulf. The cold front will move into the NW Gulf today. Weak ridging northeast of the Gulf will produce gentle winds and placid sea conditions for the next several days. Smoke and haze from ongoing agricultural fires in Mexico could reduce visibilities in the western Gulf and the Bay of Campeche. CARIBBEAN SEA... 15-25 kt tradewinds are over the Caribbean Sea. Scattered moderate convection is over S Guatemala and W Honduras. Similar convection is over S Nicaragua, Costa Rica, W Panama, and N Colombia. In the upper levels, a trough is over the NW Caribbean. An upper level ridge is over the remainder of the Caribbean. The pressure gradient between the Bermuda High north of the area and low pressure over Colombia will support strong easterly winds across most of the south-central Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras today. Winds will diminish and decrease in areal coverage tonight through early next week as the high pressure shifts eastward and the pressure gradient weakens. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1012 mb surface low is centered near 32N77W. Scattered moderate convection is N of 28N and W of 76W. Upper level diffluence is also enhancing this convection. A 1024 mb high is centered near 29N61W. A cold front enters the central Atlantic from 31N32W to 25N42W with scattered showers. Over the W Atlantic, high pressure extending from a high center southeast of Bermuda will support pulses of fresh to strong winds north of Hispaniola each evening through Sun. A weak cold front will approach the northern forecast waters on Mon, then push eastward across the west-central Atlantic Tue through Wed night. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa