000 AXNT20 KNHC 040532 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 132 AM EDT Sat May 4 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from coast of Guinea near 10N13W to 03N22W. The ITCZ continues from 03N22W to 02N30W to the coast of Brazil near 01S46W. Widely scattered moderate convection is S of the Monsoon trough from 02N-08N between 08W-15W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1013 mb low is centered over SE Georgia near 31N81W. A surface trough extends W from the low to the Florida Panhandle near 31N87W. Scattered moderate convection is over SE Georgia and NE Florida, to include Jacksonville Florida. Further S, scattered moderate convection is over the Straits of Florida and W Cuba. Elsewhere, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is inland over S Texas. Widely scattered moderate convection is also over the NW Gulf of Mexico N of 22N and W of 92W. 5-15 kt SW flow is over the Gulf, with strongest winds over the W Gulf. A weak cold front will move across the NW north-central waters Sat and become stationary Sat night near the coast. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, some possibly strong to severe, are expected along and near the front. Otherwise, weak high pressure ridging northeast of the Gulf will produce generally light to gentle winds over most of the Gulf and relatively low seas for the next several days. Smoke and haze from ongoing agricultural fires in Mexico could reduce visibilities in the western Gulf and the Bay of Campeche through at least the weekend. CARIBBEAN SEA... 15-25 kt tradewinds are over the Caribbean Sea. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is over S Guatemala and W Honduras. Similar convection is over Costa Rica, W Panama, and N Colombia. In the upper levels, a trough is over the NW Caribbean. An upper level ridge is over the remainder of the Caribbean. The pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and low pressure over Colombia is supporting strong to near gale force northeast to east winds over the south- central Caribbean as well as strong east winds over Gulf of Honduras today. Winds will diminish and decrease in areal coverage Sat through early next week as the high pressure shifts eastward and the pressure gradient weakens. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1013 mb surface low is centered near 31N81W. Scattered moderate convection prevails across the west Atlantic mainly N of 28N and W of 76W, mostly due to upper level diffluence. A 1024 mb high is centered near 30N64W. A cold front enters the central Atlantic from 31N32W to 24N45W with scattered showers. A 1021 mb high is centered over the E Atlantic near 28N27W. Over the W Atlantic, the 1013 mb low along the coast of southeastern Georgia, with a trough extending northeastward along the southeastern Georgia coast, will lift northward through Sat while weakening. A 1024 mb high center S of Bermuda will support pulses of fresh to strong winds north of Hispaniola during the evening through Sun. A weak cold front will approach the northern forecast waters Mon, then push eastward across the west- central Atlantic on Tue through Wed night. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa