000 AXNT20 KNHC 032339 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 739 PM EDT Fri May 3 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2330 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from coast of Guinea near 10N13W to 04N21W. The ITCZ continues from 04N21W to 00N47W. No significant convection is noted at this time. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough extends from 30N84W to 27N88W. No significant convection is noted along this feature. A shortwave trough aloft extends across the basin along 86W. Scattered moderate convection prevails east of the trough affecting the Yucatan Channel, Florida Straits and southern Florida. Weak surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the area. Scatterometer data depicts moderate easterly winds across most of the basin except west of 94W, where fresh winds are noted. The trough across the northeastern Gulf will lift northeast of the area tonight. Weak ridging northeast of the Gulf will produce generally light to gentle winds over most of the Gulf and relatively low seas for the next several days. Smoke and haze from ongoing agricultural fires in Mexico could reduce visibilities in the western Gulf and the Bay of Campeche through at least the weekend. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper-level trough extends along 86W reaching the far west Caribbean. Scattered moderate convection is noted over the Yucatan Channel and western Cuba. Similar convection is also present over Costa Rica and Panama, with some of this activity reaching the adjacent southern Caribbean waters. The pressure gradient between the high pressure north of the area and low pressure over Colombia is supporting strong to near-gale force northeast to east winds over the south-central Caribbean as well as strong east winds over Gulf of Honduras through tonight. Winds will diminish and decrease in areal coverage by Sat through early next week as the high pressure shifts eastward and the pressure gradient weakens. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1014 mb surface low is centered near 31N81W. Scattered moderate convection prevails across the west Atlantic mainly west of 77W supported by a diffluent flow aloft. To the east, a 1025 mb high is centered near 32N66W. A cold front enters the central Atlantic from 31N34W to 27N47W with scattered showers. A 1020 mb high is centered south of the front near 25N34W. A surface trough is between the high and front extending from 28N33W to 21N45W. The low will lift northward through tonight while weakening. High pressure extending from a 1025 mb high center just west of Bermuda to east-central Florida will support pulses of fresh to strong winds north of Hispaniola during the evening and through the weekend. A weak cold front will approach the northern forecast waters on Mon, then push eastward into the west-central Atlantic on Tue through Wed night. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA