000 AXNT20 KNHC 031731 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 205 PM EDT Fri May 3 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1710 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from coast of Guinea near 10N14W to 05N18W. The ITCZ continues from 05N18W to 04N20W, to 04N24W, to 02N31W, to the Equator along 36W, to 02S43W. Precipitation: Scattered strong from 03N to 05N between 08W and 11W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 01N to 04N from 03W eastward, from 03N northward between 05W and 08W, and from 03N to 05N between 18W and 23W. Isolated moderate elsewhere from 07N southward. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough extends from coastal Georgia, through NE Florida, to the Florida Gulf of Mexico coast near 29N83W, to 24N86W in the Gulf of Mexico. Isolated moderate rainshowers are in the NE corner of the Gulf of Mexico, N of 25N E of 86W. An upper level trough passes through the Florida Panhandle to the Yucatan Peninsula. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are in the Yucatan Channel. Scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are in the coastal plains and coastal waters of Texas. This precipitation is related to a middle level trough and inland severe weather. The current trough in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico will move to the northeast of the area later today. A weak ridge to the northeast of the Gulf will produce generally quiescent winds and seas for the next several days. It is possible that smoke and haze from ongoing agricultural fires in Mexico may reduce the visibilities in the western and southwestern parts of the Gulf of Mexico. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level trough passes through the Florida Panhandle to the Yucatan Peninsula. The trough continues to parts of Guatemala, El Salvador, and Honduras. An upper level ridge passes through eastern Venezuela, beyond northern Colombia, into the eastern Pacific Ocean near 07N85W. Middle level to upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the rest of the Caribbean Sea, away from the cyclonic wind flow of the Yucatan Peninsula-to-El Salvador trough. High level clouds also cover much of the Caribbean Sea. Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 15N northward from 80W westward. 24-hour rainfall totals, that are listed for the period that ended at 03/1200 UTC, according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES, MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC, are: 0.68 in Freeport in the Bahamas, 0.13 in Trinidad, 0.11 in San Juan in Puerto Rico, 0.05 in Nassau in the Bahamas, and 0.01 in Curacao. The surface pressure gradient, that is between the Bermuda High north of the area and low pressure in Colombia, is supporting strong to near gale force NE to E winds in the south-central Caribbean Sea. It also is supporting strong E winds in the Gulf of Honduras today. The wind speeds will diminish and decrease in areal coverage from Saturday through early next week, as the high pressure shifts eastward and the pressure gradient weakens. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level trough is moving through the central Atlantic Ocean. The trough is supporting a cold front that passes through 32N35W to 29N40W to 27N48W. A dissipating stationary front continues from 27N48W to 28N55W. One surface trough is along 33N29W 28N30W. A second surface trough is comparatively more to the southeast of the front, along 29N34W 25N40W 21N45W. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers are within 60 nm on either side of the line that passes through 32N34W to 28N40W to 25N50W. Rainshowers are possible within 30 nm on either side of the line that runs from 29N32W to 25N40W to 20N48W. Rainshowers are possible also, from 20N to 24N50W 24N56W 24N66W 26N70W between 50W and 70W. The current trough, that is near the border of NE Florida and Georgia, will move northeastward today. The Bermuda High will support pulses of fresh to strong winds north of Hispaniola during the evening through tomorrow Saturday. A weak cold front will approach the northern forecast waters on Monday. The front will push eastward into the west-central Atlantic Ocean on Tuesday. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ mt