403 AXNT20 KNHC 031051 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 651 AM EDT Fri May 3 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1019 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from coast of Guinea near 10N14W to 04N20W. The ITCZ continues from 04N20W to the coast of Brazil near 02S44W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the area where the monsoon trough and ITCZ meets from 05N-04N between 19W-26W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1015 low is along the trough in the eastern Gulf near 28N83W. The trough extends from the western Atlantic near 31N80W to near 26N85W. The strongest convection associated with this feature is still occurring over the western Atlantic waters, but showers are seen in the eastern Gulf within 65 nm of the trough. Meanwhile, in the western Gulf, showers are off the Texas and Louisiana coast associated with strong convection over the state induced by the mid-level disturbance slowly moving eastward across Texas and Louisiana. The strong convection is still well inland and not expected to move over the Gulf waters. Surface ridging prevails elsewhere across the basin with fair weather. Scatterometer data depicts light to moderate east- southeast winds across the basin, with fresh winds north of the Yucatan. Ongoing agricultural fires are generating widespread smoke and haze which could reduce visibility over the western Gulf and the Bay of Campeche through today. A trough across the northeastern Gulf will weaken today and move north of the area. A thermal induced trough off west of Yucatan will support occasional pulses of fresh to strong winds each evening. Moderate southeasterly winds are expected elsewhere through the weekend. CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered showers are seen across the northwest Caribbean along with convection continuing off the northern Panama and Costa Rica coast. Light showers are seen across Puerto Rico and the Greater Antilles with some heavier showers south of Hispaniola. Low-topped showers are also seen across the Lesser Antilles. Moderate to fresh trades prevail in the central and eastern Caribbean with gentle to moderate trades in the western basin. The pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and low pressure over Colombia will continue to support strong to near gale force northeast to east winds over the south-central Caribbean through Saturday. Winds will diminish and decrease in areal coverage Sunday and Monday as the high pressure shifts eastward and the pressure gradient weakens. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The trough associated with the low over the eastern Gulf extends into the western Atlantic off the northeast Florida coast near 31N80W to near 30N81W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen near this trough from 31N-29N between 78W-81W. A cold front enters the waters in the central Atlantic near 31N39W and extends westward to near 28N48W. From 28N48W, the tail- end of the boundary stalls to near 28N56W. A pre-frontal trough is seen from near 31N31W to near 22N45W. Showers are within 50 nm of both of these boundaries. A 1024 mb high is near 30N61W and is ridging across the central Atlantic with another 1020 mb high near 25N35W. A trough across northern Florida will drift northward and weaken today. High pressure near Bermuda will support pulses of fresh to strong winds north of Hispaniola during the evening through Saturday. A weak cold front will approach northern forecast waters Monday then push eastward into the west-central Atlantic on Tuesday. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ AKR