000 AXNT20 KNHC 030553 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 153 AM EDT Fri May 3 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0520 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A tight pressure gradient developing across the east and central Caribbean will lead to brief gale-force winds across the near and offshore waters of Colombia tonight. These winds are expected to last through Friday morning, with seas building to 10 to 13 ft. As the pressure gradient weakens by Friday, winds are also expected to diminish and weaken. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shmtl for further details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from coast of Senegal near 15N17W to 03N26W. The ITCZ continues from 03N26W to the coast of Brazil near 01S50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 75 nm on either sides of the monsoon trough mainly east of 27W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1015 low has formed along the trough along the west coast of Florida north of Tampa Bay near 29N83W. The trough extends from 31N82W to near 25N83W. The strongest convection associated with this feature is off the east coast of Florida, but showers are seen in the eastern Gulf. Meanwhile, in the western Gulf, isolated showers are off the Texas and Louisiana coast associated with strong convection over the state induced by the mid-level disturbance slowly moving eastward across Texas and Louisiana. The strong convection is still well inland and not expected to move over the Gulf waters. Surface ridging prevails elsewhere across the basin with fair weather. Scatterometer data depicts light to moderate east-southeast winds across the basin, with fresh winds north of the Yucatan. Ongoing agricultural fires are generating widespread smoke which could reduce visibility over the western Gulf and the Bay of Campeche through today. A trough along the west coast of Florida will lift northward to the NE Gulf tonight, then weaken as it moves northeastward away from the area on Friday. A daily trough off northwest Yucatan will support occasional pulses of fresh to strong winds during the evenings through early next week. Elsewhere, high pressure will support over the northern Gulf will support gentle to moderate winds over the NE Gulf and moderate to fresh southeast winds elsewhere, diminishing through Saturday. A weak cold front will move over the far NW and N-central Gulf waters on Saturday and become stationary by late Saturday. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the Special Features section for more information on the gale north of Colombia. Convection is noted in the northwest Caribbean from 20N-19N between 83W-85W. There is also convection right off the northern Panama and Costa Rica coast in the southwest Caribbean. Convection from earlier this evening is now weakening to showers across Cuba and Hispaniola, although isolated thunderstorms are seen north of the Jamaica Channel. Latest scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong winds offshore of Colombia between 11N and 13.5N, while moderate to fresh trades prevail in the central and eastern Caribbean. Gentle to moderate trades are seen in the western basin. A tight pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and low pressure over Colombia will continue to support strong to near gale force northeast to east winds over the the central Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras through the rest of the week, reaching minimal gale force along the coast of Colombia tonight. Winds will begin to diminish and decrease in areal coverage this weekend into early next week as the high pressure weakens and allows for the pressure gradient to slacken. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Scattered moderate convection from the trough over the Florida Gulf coast is seen in the western Atlantic from 30N-26N between 78W-80W. The strongest convection is located between South Florida and the northern Bahamas. Otherwise, surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin, anchored by a 1027 mb high centered near 31N64W and a 1021 mb high near 26N36W. A trough over south-central Florida extending northeastward to near 30N79W will lift north-northeastward reaching the far northwest waters Friday and to north of the area on Saturday. Winds and seas will gradually diminish over the the Bahamas will continue to move across Florida into the eastern Gulf today, allowing associated winds, seas and thunderstorms to diminish through tonight. High pressure near Bermuda will support pulses of fresh to strong winds north of Hispaniola during the evenings through Saturday. A cold front will move over the far northwestern forecast waters Sunday night, weaken as it quickly moves across the waters north and northeast of the Bahamas through Monday night, and move southward across the central and southern waters as a trough Tuesday and Tuesday night. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ AKR