000 AXNT20 KNHC 022324 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 724 PM EDT Thu May 2 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A tight pressure gradient developing across the east and central Caribbean will lead to brief gale-force winds across the near and offshore waters of Colombia tonight. These winds are expected to last through Friday morning, with seas building to 10 to 13 ft. As the pressure gradient weakens by Friday, winds are also expected to diminish and weaken. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shmtl for further details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the West African coast near 09N13W to 04N22W. The ITCZ continues from 04N22W to the coast of Brazil near 01S45W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 75 nm on either sides of the monsoon trough mainly east of 20W. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough extends across the Florida peninsula along 27N enhancing convection across the peninsula. A surface low is expected to develop from this trough and move northwest across the basin during the next 24 hours. An outflow boundary has shifted southward off the southwest Louisiana and southeast Texas, induced by a middle level disturbance moving slowly eastward across far eastern Texas and western Louisiana. Modest showers are along this boundary over the area coastal waters with more significant convection presently developing over south central Louisiana moving eastward towards Baton Rouge. Surface ridging prevails elsewhere across the basin with fair weather. Scatterometer data depicts moderate easterly winds across the whole area. Ongoing agricultural fires are generating widespread smoke which could reduce visibility over the western Gulf and the Bay of Campeche through today. A surface low is expected to develop from the trough across Florida and move northwest across the northeast Gulf during the next 24 hours. A daily trough off northwest Yucatan will support occasional pulses of fresh to strong winds during the evenings through early next week. Elsewhere, high pressure will support over the northern Gulf will support gentle to moderate winds over the NE Gulf and moderate to fresh southeast winds elsewhere, diminishing through Sat. A weak cold front will move over the far NW and N-central Gulf waters on Sat and become stationary by late Sat. Ongoing agricultural fires are generating widespread smoke which could reduce visibility over the western Gulf and the Bay of Campeche. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the Special Features section for more information on the developing gale north of Colombia. Scattered shallow to moderate tradewind convection continues moving west-northwest across the Greater Antilles. Similar convection is also present across portions of Central America. Latest scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong winds offshore of Colombia between 11N and 13.5N, while moderate to fresh trades prevail elsewhere. The tight pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and low pressure over Colombia will continue to support strong to near gale force northeast to east winds over the the central Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras through the rest of the week, reaching minimal gale force along the coast of Colombia tonight. Winds will begin to diminish and decrease in areal coverage this weekend into early next week as the high pressure weakens and allows for the pressure gradient to slacken. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough extends across the Florida Peninsula reaching the west Atlantic from 28N80W to 29N79W. Scattered moderate convection prevails north of 26N and west of 75W. Moderate to fresh southeasterly winds are noted west of 70W. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin, anchored by a 1027 mb high centered near 32N66W and a 1020 mb high near 26N33W. The trough over south-central Florida will lift north- northeastward reaching the far northwest waters by Fri and to north of the area on Sat. Winds and seas will gradually diminish through tonight. High pressure near Bermuda will support pulses of fresh to strong winds north of Hispaniola during the evenings through Sat. A cold front will move over the far northwestern forecast waters by Sun night, weaken as it quickly moves across the waters north and northeast of the Bahamas through Mon night, and move southward across the central and southern waters as a trough Tue and Tue night. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA