000 AXNT20 KNHC 021722 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 122 PM EDT Thu May 2 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1600 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A tight pressure gradient developing across the east and central Caribbean this morning will lead to brief gale-force winds across the near and offshore waters of Colombia tonight. These east- northeast gale force winds are expected to last through Friday morning, with seas building to 10 to 13 ft by Friday morning. As the pressure gradient weakens by Friday, winds are also expected to diminish and weaken. See latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shmtl for further details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the West African coast near the Sierra Leone-Guinea border near 09N13W to 03.5N22W. The ITCZ continues from 03.5N22W to 03.5N28W to the coast of Brazil near 01S46W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted about the monsoon trof from 03.5N to 08.5N from 18W eastward to the coast. GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure ridging across the northern Gulf coast has begun to weaken slightly today as an inverted trough across the Bahamas overnight has shifted slightly WNW across southern Florida and the Florida keys. This is yielding light to moderate east to east- southeast winds across the north half of the basin. A few narrow lines of moderate showers can been seen in satellite imagery across the northeast quarter of the basin. An outflow boundary has shifted southward off the southwest Louisiana and southeast Texas coasts late this morning, induced by a middle level disturbance moving slowly eastward across far eastern Texas and western Louisiana. Modest showers are along this boundary over the area coastal waters with more significant convection presently developing over south central Louisiana moving eastward towards Baton Rouge. Elsewhere generally fair weather prevails across the rest of the basin, with moderate to fresh east-southeast winds across the central and southwestern Gulf. Ongoing agricultural fires are generating widespread smoke which could reduce visibility over the western Gulf and the Bay of Campeche through today. The trough across the Florida peninsula this morning will move west-northwestward today, reaching the eastern Gulf this afternoon and evening, then weaken into Friday as it continues to move north of the area. The daily trough off northwest Yucatan will support occasional pulses of fresh to strong winds during the evenings through early next week. Elsewhere, high pressure over the northern Gulf will support gentle to moderate winds over the northeast Gulf and moderate to fresh SE winds elsewhere, diminishing through Saturday. CARIBBEAN SEA... See the Special Features section for more information on the developing gale north of Colombia. Scattered shallow to moderate tradewind convection continues moving west-northwest across Puerto Rico, and much of the Dominican Republic, and area beginning to develop across far eastern Cuba. Tradewind cumulus is also growing across much of interior Nicaragua and the east half of Honduras, where scattered showers are developing. Morning scatterometer data shows fresh to strong tradewinds across the basin east of 80W, with 25-30 kt winds offshore of Colombia between 11N and 13.5N Fresh tradewinds are seen across the outer waters of the Gulf of Honduras. The rest of the basin is under gentle to moderate trades. A tightening pressure gradient will continue to gradually develop between high pressure centered just west of Bermuda and low pressure over Colombia, as the trough across Florida and the Bahamas shifts farther westward later today. This pattern will support strong to near gale force northeast to east winds over the the central Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras through the rest of the week, reaching minimal gale force along the coast of Colombia tonight. Winds will begin to diminish and decrease in areal coverage this weekend into early next week as the high pressure weakens and allows for the pressure gradient to slacken. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A low to middle level disturbance supports the surface trough extending from the Florida Keys across south Florida to near 30N79W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection occurring behind the westward moving trough is occurring across the northern half of the Bahamas. Satellite imagery this morning shows several outflow boundaries emanating northward from some of this convection, suggesting strong gusty winds. As the disturbance and surface trough shift westward today, expect increasing afternoon convection across much of the interior Florida peninsula, with scattered squalls and isolated thunderstorms moving into the eastern coastal waters and impacting the coasts. Fresh to locally strong east to east-southeast winds currently prevailing across the Bahamas and most of the waters west of 70W will begin to back and become more south to southeast this afternoon and tonight. Disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity will continue behind these features tonight. A 1028 mb high is centered near Bermuda this morning and is inducing fresh to locally strong tradewinds south of 20N from 40W into the east and northeastern Caribbean. Seas across this area are generally 6-8 ft this morning. The high will shift very slowly east-southeast and weaken slightly through Sat to maintain these current conditions through Friday before diminishing Saturday. A cold front will move over the far northwestern forecast waters Sunday night, then weaken as it quickly moves across the waters north and northeast of the Bahamas through Monday night. Weak high pressure across the northeast Atlantic is producing a modest pressure gradient across the tropical eastern Atlantic, and producing moderate to fresh north to northeast winds from the Azores to the Cabo Verdes Islands extending into the deep tropics. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Stripling