000 AXNT20 KNHC 021045 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 645 AM EDT Thu May 2 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1020 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A tight pressure gradient will lead to brief gale-force winds north of Colombia tonight and will also develop Thursday night. These east-northeast gale force winds will last through Friday morning with 10 to 12 ft seas. As the pressure gradient weakens by Friday, winds are also expected to diminish and weaken. See latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shmtl for further details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 04N19W. The ITCZ continues from 04N19W to 02N32W to the coast of Brazil near 02S44W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted along the monsoon trough from 06N-04N between 11W- 20W. GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure continues ridging across the basin with light showers off the Texas and Mexican coastlines, west of 95W. A surface trough is also off the coast of Florida near 26N84W to near 28N84W with no significant weather associated with the feature at this time. A trough is also to the west of the Yucatan near 22N90W to the coast of Mexico near 19N92W. Otherwise, ongoing agricultural fires are generating widespread smoke which could reduce visibility over the western Gulf and the Bay of Campeche through today. Moderate to fresh east- southeast winds are seen in the central and western Gulf, with light to gentle east winds in the eastern portion of the basin. A trough will move across the Florida peninsula this morning, reaching the northeastern Gulf later today, then weaken into Friday as it continues to move north of the area. A daily trough off northwest Yucatan will support occasional pulses of fresh to strong winds during the evenings through early next week. Elsewhere, high pressure will support over the northern Gulf will support gentle to moderate winds over the northeast Gulf and moderate to fresh SE winds elsewhere, diminishing through Saturday. CARIBBEAN SEA... See the Special Features section for more information on the developing gale north of Colombia. Scattered moderate convection continues across the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and the eastern Dominican Republic. Showers over Cuba have weakened with some isolated activity. Convection continues along the Honduras/Guatemala border area. Trade winds are fresh to strong north of Colombia, and moderate to fresh across the central Caribbean and north of Honduras. Otherwise, the rest of the basin has gentle to moderate trades. A tight pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and low pressure over Colombia will continue to support strong to near gale force northeast to east winds over the the central Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras through the rest of the week, reaching minimal gale force along the coast of Colombia tonight. Winds will begin to diminish and decrease in areal coverage this weekend into early next week as the high pressure weakens and allows for the pressure gradient to slacken. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough is shifting east toward Florida and is currently over the northern Bahamas islands near 29N75W to eastern Cuba near 23N81W. This feature continues to produce disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Most of the convection is occurring to the east of the trough axis with scattered showers and thunderstorms from 28N-25N between 74W- 79W. Moderate to fresh east- southeasterly winds continue across the Bahamas and off the coast of Florida. Seas are reaching 8 ft northeast of the Bahamas. A 1028 mb surface high near 34N69W is ridging across the central Atlantic. A trough over the northern Bahamas will move across Florida into the eastern Gulf today, allowing associated winds, seas and thunderstorms to diminish through tonight. High pressure near Bermuda will support pulses of fresh to strong winds north of Hispaniola during the evenings through Saturday. A cold front will move over the far northwestern forecast waters Sunday night, then weaken as it quickly moves across the waters north and northeast of the Bahamas through Monday night. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ AKR