000 AXNT20 KNHC 020541 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 141 AM EDT Thu May 2 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0519 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A tight pressure gradient will lead to brief gale-force winds north of Colombia tonight and will also develop Thursday night. These east-northeast gale force winds will last through Friday morning with 10 to 12 ft seas. As the pressure gradient weakens by Friday, winds are also expected to diminish and weaken. See latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shmtl for further details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 10N14W to 04N25W. The ITCZ continues from 04N25W to 02N35W to the coast of Brazil near 01S46W. Scattered moderate convection is noted south of the monsoon trough from 05N-04N between 10W-20W. GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure continues ridging across the basin with light showers off the Texas and Mexican coast lines, west of 95W. A surface trough is also off the coast of Florida near 26N84W to near 28N84W with no significant weather associated with the feature at this time. Otherwise, ongoing agricultural fires are generating widespread smoke which could reduce visibility over the western Gulf and the Bay of Campeche through today. Moderate to fresh east- southeast winds are seen in the central and western Gulf, with light to gentle east winds in the eastern portion of the basin. The trough off the eastern Florida coast will move northwestward, reaching the eastern Gulf Thursday, and gradually weaken by Friday. Otherwise, high pressure northeast of the area will support generally moderate to fresh winds through Thursday, except enhanced winds northwest of the Yucatan Peninsula because of the daily development of a trough across the peninsula. The high pressure will weaken this weekend allowing for southeast return flow to diminish slightly over the central and western Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... See the Special Features section for more information on the developing gale north of Colombia. Scattered moderate convection is noted across the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, with some isolated thunderstorms impacting the eastern Dominican Republic. Scattered showers are also impacting eastern Cuba and Haiti and their adjacent waters. Trade winds are fresh to strong north of Colombia, and moderate to fresh across the central Caribbean and north of Honduras. Otherwise, the rest of the basin has gentle to moderate trades. The tight pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and low pressure over Colombia will continue to support strong to near gale force northeast to east winds over the the central Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras through the rest of the week. Winds are forecast to reach minimal gale force near and along the coast of Colombia Thursday night, and may briefly reach minimal gale force there late tonight. Winds will begin to diminish and decrease in areal coverage this weekend into early next week as the high pressure weakens and allows for the pressure gradient to slacken. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough over the Bahamas is observed near 27N77W to western Cuba near 23N80W. This feature continues to produce disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Most of the convection is occurring to the east of the trough axis with scattered showers and thunderstorms from 26N-22N between 74W- 78W. A recent scatterometer pass indicated moderate to fresh east-southeasterly winds. Seas are reaching 8 ft northeast of the Bahamas. A weak 1024 mb surface high is near 28N38W and is ridging across the central Atlantic. The surface trough enhancing winds and seas over the central and NW Bahamas will move toward the northwest and inland the Florida peninsula on Thursday. The trough will then move northeastward near the southeastern United States Thursday night through Friday night. A cold front will move over the far northwestern forecast waters Sunday night, then weaken as it quickly moves across the waters north and northeast of the Bahamas through Monday night. High pressure over the area will respond by weakening and drifting eastward Friday through Monday night, allowing for winds to diminish and seas to subside. No significant long-period swell is forecast to impact the Atlantic waters for the next several days. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ AKR