000 AXNT20 KNHC 012349 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 749 PM EDT Wed May 1 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A surface trough over the Bahamas continues to produce disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Most of the convection is occurring well to the east of the trough axis with scattered showers from 22N to 28N between 70W and 78W. A recent scatterometer pass indicated fresh to strong winds from 24N to 29N between 70W and 80W. Seas are reaching 8 ft northeast of the Bahamas. The trough is moving northwestward toward the Florida Peninsula and will move into the eastern Gulf of Mexico by Thu where it will likely weaken. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible over portions of the Bahamas and the Florida Peninsula during the next couple of days. See the latest Special Tropical Weather Outlook product under AWIPS/WMO Headers MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 09N14W to 05N21W. The ITCZ continues from 05N21W to just offshore of the coast of Brazil near 02S43W. No significant organized convection is noted along these boundaries at this time. GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section for more details about the trough over the Bahamas that is forecast to move into the eastern Gulf of Mexico Thu into Fri. Ongoing agricultural fires are generating widespread smoke which could reduce visibility over the western Gulf and the Bay of Campeche. Elsewhere, surface ridging prevails across the basin anchored by a high pressure northeast of the area. The high will continue to support mainly moderate to fresh SE return flow across the basin, with seas ranging between 4-7 ft. The high pressure will weaken this weekend allowing for southeast return flow to diminish slightly over the central and western Gulf. Fresh to strong winds will pulse northwest of the Yucatan Peninsula at night with the daily development of a trough across the peninsula. CARIBBEAN SEA... Convection persists off the coast of western Panama where some weak surface convergence is noted by a recent scatterometer pass. There are also scattered showers noted over the Greater Antilles and adjacent waters. The Bermuda High well north of the basin and low pressure over Colombia will support enhanced northeast to east tradewinds in the central Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras through the rest of the week. Winds could reach minimal gale-force over the south- central Caribbean starting tonight. Winds will diminish by this weekend as high pressure weakens and the pressure gradient slackens. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Special Features section for more details about the trough over the Bahamas. A trough is also analyzed in the open Atlantic waters, extending from 30N38W to 25N41W with no significant convection noted. A weak 1024 mb surface high is just to the east of the trough near 29N35W. The trough and weak high are both forecast to shift southeast the next few days as a cold front currently located well to the north of the discussion waters drops south into the area by the end of the week into the upcoming weekend. That front may bring a brief increase in winds, along with building seas in northwest swell into the open Atlantic waters. High pressure ridging from a 1029 mb high near 34N69W prevails across the central Atlantic. This high will build southward and this pattern will generally support moderate to fresh E to SE winds. The high will weaken and drift eastward Friday through Sunday, allowing winds to diminish and seas to subside. Fresh to strong winds will pulse offshore of Hispaniola through late week, mainly at night. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA