000 AXNT20 KNHC 011627 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1227 PM EDT Wed May 1 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A surface trough over the Bahamas continues to produce disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Most of the convection is occurring well to the east of the trough axis with scattered moderate convection from 22N to 24N between 75W and 77W, and also from 22N to 26N between 65W and 72W. Scattered moderate convection is from 25N to 27N between 72W and 76W. A recent scatterometer pass indicated fresh to strong winds from 24N to 29N to the west of the trough axis as well as NE of the Bahamas. Seas are also to 8 ft northeast of the Bahamas. The trough is moving northwestward toward the Florida Peninsula and will move into the eastern Gulf of Mexico by Thu where it will likely weaken. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible over portions of the Bahamas and the Florida Peninsula during the next couple of days. See the latest special tropical weather outlook under AWIPS/WMO Headers MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 09N13W to 04N20W. The intertropical convergence zone axis continues from 04N20W to 01N28W, then continues south of the equator from 02S31W to just offshore of the coast of Brazil near 02S41W. No significant organized convection is noted. GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section for more details about the trough over the Bahamas that is forecast to move into the eastern Gulf of Mexico Thu into Fri. Ongoing agricultural fires are generating widespread smoke which could reduce visibility over the western Gulf and the Bay of Campeche. Otherwise, high pressure northeast of the area will continue to support mainly moderate to fresh SE return flow. Seas are mainly 4 to 7 ft across the basin, except higher near the Straits of Florida. Ships LAJF7 and J8NY reported 11 ft seas in the Straits of Florida at 12Z this morning. This is substantially above wave model guidance, but is consistent with 20 to 25 kt winds blowing against the current of the Gulf Stream. Seas in the area are boosted some in our forecast to account for these observations. The high pressure will weaken this weekend allowing for southeast return flow to diminish slightly over the central and western Gulf. Fresh to strong winds will pulse northwest of the Yucatan Peninsula at night with the daily development of a trough across the peninsula. CARIBBEAN SEA... Convection persists off the coast of western Panama where some weak surface convergence is noted by a recent scatterometer pass. Otherwise, only widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are elsewhere. The Bermuda High well north of the basin and low pressure over Colombia will support enhanced northeast to east tradewinds in the central Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras through the rest of the week. Winds will diminish slightly by this weekend as high pressure weakens and the pressure gradient slackens. The northeast trades are also enhanced today by the moderate pressure gradient over the waters east of the Windward Islands but are expected to weaken by late Thu. No significant long-period swell is anticipated over the tropical N Atlantic for the next several days. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section for more details about the trough over the Bahamas. Another trough is located off the coast of northern Brazil from near 11N50W to near 00N50W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible near the trough axis. This trough is forecast to move inland over northern South America in the next few days. A trough is also analyzed in the open Atlantic waters from near 31N38W to near 23N41W with no significant convection noted. A weak 1025 mb surface high is just to the east of the trough near 30N35W. The trough and weak high are both forecast to shift southeast the next few days as a cold front currently located well to the north of the discussion waters drops south into the area by the end of the week into the upcoming weekend. That front may bring a brief increase in winds, along with building seas in northwest swell into the open Atlantic waters. Otherwise, high pressure ridging from a 1030 mb high near 33N66W is seen across the central Atlantic. This high will build southward and this pattern will generally support moderate to fresh E to SE winds. The high will weaken and drift eastward Friday through Sunday, allowing winds to diminish and seas to subside. Fresh to strong winds will pulse offshore of Hispaniola through late week, mainly at night. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Lewitsky