000 AXNT20 KNHC 011038 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 638 AM EDT Wed May 1 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1019 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough exits the Sierra Leone coast near 09N13W to 04N20W. The ITCZ continues from 04N20W to 00N30W to the coast of Brazil near 03S39W. Scattered moderate convection near the coast of western Africa along the monsoon trough from 08N-05N between 11W-16W. Scattered moderate convection is also seen along the ITCZ from 05N-01N between 24W-30W and from 01N- 06S and east of 31W to the Brazilian coast. GULF OF MEXICO... A trough is moving eastward across the Gulf and is seen along the Florida Panhandle near 30N86W to near 25N86W. Ridging continues across the eastern Gulf from a high pressure in the central Atlantic. Showers are moving across the western Gulf and are weakening with some showers just off the southwest Louisiana coast and the Gulf of Campeche. Gentle to moderate east-southeast winds are in the eastern basin with moderate to fresh southeasterly winds in the western Gulf with some areas of strong winds. A trough currently east of the Florida Peninsula will drift westward, reaching the eastern Gulf Thursday, gradually weakening as it continues northwest through the end of the week. Otherwise, high pressure northeast of the area will support mainly moderate to fresh SE return flow. Fresh to strong winds will pulse northwest of the Yucatan Peninsula at night with the daily development of a trough across the peninsula. The high pressure will weaken this weekend allowing for SE return flow to diminish slightly over the western Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... Convection persists off the coast of Panama with convection also seen in Guatemala near the southern Belizean border. Scattered showers are moving across Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, eastern Cuba and Jamaica. Showers are also seen moving across the Lesser Antilles. Gentle to moderate trades are in the eastern and northwest Caribbean, with moderate to fresh trades in the western and southern Caribbean. Some of the winds north of Colombia are strong. High pressure north of the area and low pressure over Colombia will support fresh to strong trades in the central Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras through the week, pulsing to near gale off the coast of Colombia during the late night and early morning hours. Winds will diminish slightly by this weekend as high pressure weakens and the pressure gradient slackens. Mainly moderate to fresh trades will prevail elsewhere. N to NE swell will move into the waters east of the Windward Islands later today. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The surface trough bringing strong convection and heavy rains continues to linger across the Bahamas near 28N71W to western Haiti near 19N73W. Most of the strong convection still occurring is to the east of the trough over the southeastern islands of the Bahamas from 22N-21N and west of 72W. Scattered moderate convection and showers are also seen from 26N-22N between 70W-76W. Another trough is located off the coast of northern Brazil from near 09N49W to near 01N49W. Otherwise, high pressure ridging from a 1028 mb high near 34N64W is seen across the central Atlantic. A surface trough over the southern and central Bahamas will drift west and gradually weaken through Thursday while high pressure builds northeast of the area. This pattern will generally support moderate to fresh E to SE winds, except fresh to strong winds S of 28N through late today. High pressure will weaken and drift eastward Friday through Sunday, allowing winds to diminish and seas to subside. Fresh to strong winds will pulse offshore of Hispaniola through late week, mainly at night. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ AKR