000 AXNT20 KNHC 302332 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 805 PM EDT Tue Apr 30 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2310 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea near 10N14W to 05N20W. The ITCZ continues from 05N20W, crossing the Equator along 26W, to 04S36W, across inland coastal sections of Brazil to 02S50W. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are to the south of the line that extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W to 06N30W, to the coast of Brazil near 04N51W, and from 10W westward. GULF OF MEXICO... The GFS model for 250 mb shows an upper level ridge along 90W in the center of the Gulf of Mexico. The GFS model for 500 mb and for 700 mb shows anticyclonic wind flow with a ridge from 90W eastward, a trough from the Texas coast southeastward, cyclonic wind flow from 25N southward between the Yucatan Peninsula and 93W, and anticyclonic wind flow elsewhere to the east of Mexico from 20N to 25N. Upper level moisture covers the area from 93W westward, moving northeastward across parts of Mexico and Texas. A surface ridge extends from the Florida Panhandle into the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. A surface trough, that currently is to the E of the Florida Peninsula in the Atlantic Ocean, will drift westward, reaching the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Thursday. The trough will weaken gradually, as it continues NW through the end of the week. High pressure, that is to the NE of the area, will support mainly moderate to fresh return flow. Fresh to strong wind speeds will pulse NW of the Yucatan Peninsula at night with the daily development of a surface trough across the peninsula. The surface pressure gradient will weaken this weekend, allowing for return flow to diminish slightly. FOR PARTS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level cyclonic circulation center is on top of the central Bahamas. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean, parts of the Caribbean Sea, and Florida, from 15N northward between 64W and 87W in the Yucatan Channel. A surface trough is along 27N72W 23N75W 19N76W, from the Atlantic Ocean, across the central Bahamas, to SE Cuba. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers cover the areas that are from Jamaica to Hispaniola and SE Cuba, to the southern Bahamas and in the Atlantic Ocean from 17N to 29N between 66W and 79W. 24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended at 30/1200 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.03 in Nassau in the Bahamas and in St. Thomas in the Virgin Islands, and 0.02 in Freeport in the Bahamas. The surface trough will linger in the area of the Bahamas during the next couple of days, while high pressure builds NE of the area. This pattern will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds, except fresh to strong S of 27N through Wednesday night. The wind speeds also will pulse to strong offshore of Hispaniola, mainly at night through Friday night. The upper level cyclonic circulation center and the surface trough will weaken and shift W toward the end of this week, allowing the wind speeds to diminish and the sea heights to subside in this region. An upper level ridge and subsident middle level air are inhibiting extensive amounts of precipitation in the Caribbean Sea on the S side of this trough. Areas of smoke may reduce the visibility in the Gulf of Honduras. The upper level cyclonic circulation center will remain close enough to Cuba and Hispaniola during the next couple of days in order to trigger rainshowers, primarily in the higher terrain during the hours of daytime heating. FOR THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are in the SW corner of the area, from 10N southward. A surface trough extends from the coastal areas of the northern part of Colombia, across parts of Panama, and southernmost Costa Rica, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Surface high pressure N of the area, and low pressure in Colombia, will support fresh to strong trade winds in the central Caribbean Sea and in the Gulf of Honduras through the week. The wind speeds will pulse to near gale off the coast of Colombia during the late night and early morning hours. The wind speeds will diminish slightly by this weekend, as high pressure weakens and the pressure gradient slackens. Mainly moderate to fresh trade winds will prevail elsewhere. N to NE swell will move into the waters E of the Windward Islands by Wednesday. FOR THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough is along 37W/38W from 25N to 31N. Rainshowers are possible within 60 nm to 90 nm on either side of the trough. A surface trough, that is currently across the southern Bahamas, will drift W and weaken gradually through Thursday, while high pressure builds NE of the area. This pattern generally will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds, except fresh to strong winds S of 27N through tonight, shifting NW through Wednesday night. High pressure will weaken and drift eastward from Friday through Sunday, allowing for the wind speeds to diminish and the sea heights to subside. Fresh to strong winds will pulse offshore of Hispaniola through late week, mainly at night. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ mt