000 AXNT20 KNHC 301041 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 641 AM EDT Tue Apr 30 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1019 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 09N13W to 05N19W. The ITCZ continues from 05N19W to 00N27W to the coast of Brazil near 04S38W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is along and south of the monsoon trough, from 07N-03N between 19W- 11W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 01S-06S between 26W-36W. GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure ridging continues across the Gulf. Showers continue moving off the Texas coast in the northwest portion of the basin and entering into the central Gulf. Light to gentle east-southeast winds are seen in the eastern half of the Gulf. Gentle to moderate southeasterly winds are in the western Gulf, with some fresh winds near the south Texas and northern Mexico coast. Areas of smoke in the Bay of Campeche could reduce visibility to 3 nm. High pressure NE of the area will support mainly moderate to locally fresh winds through the week, with occasionally stronger winds off Texas. Winds will also pulse to fresh to strong NW of the Yucatan Peninsula at night with the daily development of a trough across the peninsula. The high pressure may weaken by the end of the week as broad troughing or weak low pressure develops near the Florida Peninsula. CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough continues to extend from the central Bahamas to western Haiti. This feature is providing focus for scattered moderate convection across mostly across some of the southern islands in the Bahamas. Some showers are also seen across eastern Dominican Republic. Light showers are moving through Puerto Rico. Fresh to strong trades are north of Colombia, otherwise gentle to moderate trades are seen across the rest of the basin. Areas of smoke could reduce visibility over the Gulf of Honduras. The upper level trough along 74W is significantly enhancing convection. This will lead to a slight risk of isolated flash flooding particularly along the higher terrain of eastern Cuba and Hispaniola through Thursday. High pressure north of the area and low pressure over Colombia will support fresh to strong trades in the central Caribbean through the week, pulsing to near gale off the coast of Colombia during the late night and early morning hours. Winds will diminish slightly by the upcoming weekend as the pressure gradient slackens slightly. Mainly moderate to fresh trades will prevail elsewhere. Easterly swell will move into the waters east of the Windward Islands by mid week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough extends from the Bahamas near 75W to western Haiti. Scattered moderate convection is over the southern Bahamas and the western Atlantic 28N-20N between 67W-76W. A 1026 mb high is over the central Atlantic near 32N46W. Farther east, a surface trough is observed near 31N39W to near 27N44W. Some clouds and very light showers are seen along the trough. A surface trough will linger over the Bahamas while high pressure builds northeast of the area. This pattern will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds, except fresh to strong S of 27N through Wednesday night. Winds will also pulse to strong offshore of Hispaniola, mainly at night. The trough will weaken and shift westward toward the end of the week and upcoming weekend allowing for winds to diminish and for seas to subside. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ AKR