000 AXNT20 KNHC 292316 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 716 PM EDT Mon Apr 29 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 03N19W. The ITCZ continues from 03N19W to 03S30W to the coast of Brazil near 03S40W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is inland over W Africa from from 06N-12N between 08W-12W. Isolated moderate convection is from 03N-06S between 23W-44W. GULF OF MEXICO... 10-15 kt SE return flow is over the Gulf of Mexico with mostly fair weather. A band of broken to overcast high cloud has entered the W Gulf W of 95W. Light smoke is also noted over the W Gulf W of 94W. High pressure NE of the area will support mainly moderate to locally fresh winds through the week, with occasionally stronger winds off Texas. Winds will also pulse to fresh to strong NW of the Yucatan Peninsula at night with the daily development of a trough across the peninsula. The high pres may weaken by the end of the week as broad troughing or weak low pressure develops near the Florida Peninsula. CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough extends from the Bahamas near 26N74W to SW Haiti near 18N74W. Scattered moderate convection is over E Cuba, Hispaniola, and Jamaica. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is also over Costa Rica, Panama, and NW Colombia. Scattered showers are inland over Honduras. 15-25 kt tradewinds are over the Caribbean Sea. Additionally, areas of smoke could reduce visibility over the Gulf of Honduras. Of note in the upper levels, a sharp upper level trough is along 73W significantly enhancing convection. A slight risk of isolated flash flooding particularly along the higher terrain of eastern Cuba and Hispaniola is expected until Thursday. High pressure N of the area and low pres over Colombia will support fresh to strong trades in the central Caribbean through the week, pulsing to near gale off the coast of Colombia during the late night and early morning hours. Winds will diminish slightly by the upcoming weekend as the pressure gradient slackens slightly. Mainly moderate to fresh trades will prevail elsewhere. Easterly swell will build seas in the tropical north Atlantic by mid week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough extends from the Bahamas near 26N74W to SW Haiti near 18N74W. Scattered moderate convection is over the Bahamas from 21N-29N between 71W-77W. A 1026 mb high is over the W Atlantic near 33N67W. The tail end of a cold front extends from 31N59W to 29N60W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the front. A 1025 mb high is centered over the central Atlantic near 32N46W. A 1024 mb high is centered over the E Atlantic near 32N30W. A surface trough will linger over the Bahamas while high pressure builds NE of the area. This pattern will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds, except fresh to strong winds S of 27N through Wed night. Winds will also pulse to strong offshore of Hispaniola, mainly at night. The trough will weaken and shift westward toward the end of the week and upcoming weekend allowing for winds to diminish and for seas to subside. Otherwise, surface high pressure will generally maintain gentle to moderate trades over the tropical Atlantic N of the ITCZ and S of 20N between 25W and the Windward Islands for the next several days. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa