000 AXNT20 KNHC 291643 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1243 PM EDT Mon Apr 29 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 04N18W. The ITCZ continues from 04N18W to 03S30W to the coast of Brazil near 03S43W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is present from 01N to 03N between 23W and 29W...from 00N to 02N between 33W and 48W and from 02S to 04S between 23W and 40W. GULF OF MEXICO... A high pressure ridge reaches SW from the western Atlc over Florida to the Bay of Campeche. Deep layer ridging over the basin is currently inhibiting the development of any significant cloudiness or deep convection. Areas of smoke originating from agricultural burning could bring visibilities down to 3 nm across the Bay of Campeche. Moderate ESE winds are generally observed across the Gulf. High pressure ridging will remain in place N of the area. The ridge will support mainly moderate to locally fresh winds through the week. Winds could be locally strong along the Texas coast Tue. Winds will also pulse to fresh to strong NW of the Yucatan Peninsula at night in conjunction with the daily development of a trough across the peninsula. The high pressure may weaken by the end of the week as broad troughing or weak low pres develops near the Florida Peninsula. CARIBBEAN SEA... Trade winds remain fresh to strong north of Colombia. Across the rest of the basin, trades are gentle to moderate. A surface trough extends N through the Windward Passage from near 18N75W to the Bahamas. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is occurring over the Windward Passage and Haiti, or N of 18.5N between 72W and 75W. Showers producing some moderate rainfall are observed over the Dominican Republic. Additionally, areas of smoke could reduce visibility over the Gulf of Honduras. A sharp upper-level trough extends S from 28N78W to 20N75W. Strong upper-level divergence on the E side of this trough should provide the necessary lift to trigger showers and thunderstorms over eastern Cuba, Hispaniola, and the central and southeastern Bahamas for the next few days. A slight risk of isolated flash flooding particularly along the higher terrain of eastern Cuba and Hispaniola is expected until Thursday. The trough is expected to gradually weaken beginning on Tue. This should allow the convection in this area to gradually wind down during the second half of this week. High pressure north of the area and persistent low pressure over Colombia will combine to support fresh to strong trades over the central Caribbean through the week, pulsing to near gale force off the coast of Colombia during the late night and early morning hours. Mainly moderate to fresh trades will prevail elsewhere. Easterly swell will cause seas to build to around 8 ft in the tropical north Atlantic by Wed. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough extends N from the eastern tip of Cuba near 20N74W to 28N74W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is occurring primarily on the E side of this trough from 20N to 29N between 70W and 77W. This area includes the central and SE Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the eastern tip of Cuba and the Atlc approach to the Windward Passage. A weak surface trough curves N from 23N39W to 1020 mb low pres centered near 27N36.5W to beyond 32N36.5W. This system is producing little in the way of cloudiness or showers. The surface trough will linger over the Bahamas and near the Windward Passage for the next couple of days and remain a focus for deep convection while a high pressure ridge remains in place N of 30N. This pattern will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds though mid week, with strong winds pulsing off the coast of Hispaniola mainly at night. Otherwise, high pressure centered NW of the Azores will generally maintain gentle to moderate trades over the tropical Atlantic N of the ITCZ and S of 20N between 25W and the Windward Islands for the next several days. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ CAM