000 AXNT20 KNHC 291043 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 643 AM EDT Mon Apr 29 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1019 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 03N18W. The ITCZ continues from 03N18W to 00N25W to the coast of Brazil near 03S42W. Scattered moderate convection is north of the ITCZ from 03N-01N between 18W-26W and from 02N-02S between 30W-46W. Isolated moderate convection is moving off the coast of Ghana and Cote d'Ivoire, north of 03N and east of 13W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1018 mb high pressure continues to sit over the Florida Panhandle and is ridging across the eastern Gulf. A weak surface trough is still observed over the western Yucatan. Clouds with some isolated light showers are seen over the southern Bay of Campeche and along the south Texas and northern Mexican coast. Areas of smoke across the Bay of Campeche could bring visibilities down to 3 nm through this morning. Gentle to moderate east- southeast winds are seen across the Gulf. High pressure northeast of the area will support mainly moderate to locally fresh through the week, with occasionally stronger winds off Texas. Winds will also pulse to fresh to strong northwest of the Yucatan Peninsula at night with the daily development of a trough across the peninsula. The high pressure may weaken by the end of the week as broad troughing or weak low pres develops near the Florida Peninsula. CARIBBEAN SEA... Tradewinds continue to be fresh to strong north of Colombia. Across the rest of the basin, trades are gentle to moderate. Convection continues across north-central Cuba along a surface trough over the Bahamas. Showers with some moderate rainfall is observed across Hispaniola and Puerto Rico. Thunderstorms are also seen in the waters between Jamaica, Cuba, and Haiti. Additionally, areas of smoke in the Gulf of Honduras could reduce visibility to 3 nm through Monday morning. An upper-level shortwave trough over Florida is anticipated to strengthen and cut off while moving slowly southeastward during the next few days. This should provide the forcing for an enhancement of showers and thunderstorms over eastern Cuba, Hispaniola, and the central and southeastern Bahamas. A slight risk of isolated flash flooding particularly along the terrain of eastern Cuba and Hispaniola is expected into Thursday. High pressure north of the area and low pressure over Colombia will support fresh to strong trades in the central Caribbean through the week, pulsing to near gale off the coast of Colombia during the late night and early morning hours. Mainly moderate to fresh trades will prevail elsewhere. Easterly swell will build seas in the tropical north Atlantic by mid week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough extends over the northern Bahamas near 29N73W to central Cuba near 21N77W. Strong convection is occurring along this trough from the central Bahamas to north-central Cuba. Showers with embedded thunderstorms are also occurring near the northern portion of the trough west of 70W. In the central Atlantic, a trough extends from a 1019 mb low near 34N38W to near 22N40W. Another low has developed along this trough near 26N37W and showers are just north and east of this low. Showers can also be seen north of 28N and east of 34W near the trough. Scattered showers continue moving to the north and east across the Cabo Verde Islands to northeast Mauritania and southern Western Sahara. A surface trough will linger over the central Bahamas while high pressure builds NE of the area. This pattern will support E to SE winds though mid week, with strong winds pulsing off the coast of Hispaniola mainly at night. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ AKR