000 AXNT20 KNHC 281757 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 157 PM EDT Sun Apr 28 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of West Africa near 10N14W to 02N20W. The ITCZ continues from 02N20W across the equator at 24W to the coast of Brazil near 02S45W. Widely scattered moderate convection is noted within 180 nm of the monsoon trough and ITCZ axes. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1020 mb high is present near the intersection of Florida, Georgia, and Alabama with ridging extending westward along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast. A weak surface trough is present from 19N92W to 24N90W with scattered strong convection within 120 nm of 24N87W. Winds are generally light to moderate breeze conditions. High pressure northeast of the basin will support moderate to locally fresh SE wind flow during the next several days. The winds will pulse to fresh to strong NW of the Yucatan Peninsula at night with the daily development of a trough across the peninsula. CARIBBEAN SEA... A 1021 mb Bermuda high is centered north of the area near 33N69W, which is inducing a moderate N-S pressure gradient over the Caribbean. The E tradewinds are generally moderate to fresh conditions with strong breeze just north of Colombia, as seen in the ASCAT scatterometer this morning. A surface trough is present in the northwestern Bahamas, with scattered strong convection occurring from 23-26N between 75-79W. Elsewhere scattered showers are present in the southwestern Caribbean Sea, Puerto Rico, and the Leeward Islands. High pressure to the north of the area will build southward. Fresh to strong winds will expand in coverage in order to include the entire central Caribbean Sea and offshore of Honduras, and in the lee of Cuba by early next week. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere, increasing early next week. An upper-level shortwave trough over Florida is anticipated to strengthen and cut off while moving slowly southeastward during the next few days. This should provide the forcing for an enhancement of showers and thunderstorms over Hispaniola, eastern Cuba and the central and southeastern Bahamas, with a slight risk of isolated flooding by late Monday through Thursday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A frontal boundary is stalling from 32N69W to 26N76W. No significant winds are associated with the frontal boundary, while scattered moderate convection is present within 60 nm of the front west of 70W, while scattered showers are occurring east of 70W. Farther east a surface trough extends from 32N53W to 21N42W. No significant winds are associated with the trough, while scattered showers are present within 120 nm east of the trough. Elsewhere weak ridging near 30N dominates the Atlantic and is inducing generally light to moderate tradewinds. The front will dissipate through Monday. A ridge will build across the waters north of 28N through late today, and then move northward. This pattern will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds though mid week, with strong winds pulsing off the coast of Hispaniola mainly at night. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Landsea