000 AXNT20 KNHC 281017 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 617 AM EDT Sun Apr 28 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1015 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 14N17W to 03N25W. The ITCZ continues from 03N25W to the coast of Brazil near 00N46W. Scattered moderate convection is noted south of the monsoon trough between 13W-21W and along the ITCZ mainly west of 36W. GULF OF MEXICO... Weak surface ridging and fair weather prevails across the basin, with a 1017 mb high near the Florida Panhandle 30N85W. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate SE winds west of 90W, while light anticyclonic winds prevail east of 90W. High pressure NE of the basin will continue to support moderate to locally fresh return flow through the next several days. Winds will pulse to fresh to strong NW of the Yucatan Peninsula at night with the daily development of troughing over the peninsula. CARIBBEAN SEA... Tail end of a weakening stationary front is over northwestern Cuba producing scattered showers near the coast and western portion of the island. Scattered showers are in the south-central Caribbean near the coast of Panama and adjacent waters. Mostly fair weather prevails elsewhere as mid-level ridging covers the western and central Caribbean south of 19N. Latest scatterometer depicts moderate trades are over most of the basin except south of 14N, where fresh trades are noted. The winds will pulse to fresh to strong in the S central Caribbean, expanding in coverage to the entire central Caribbean and offshore of Honduras, and in the lee of Cuba by early next week, as high pressure N of the area builds southward. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will prevail, increasing early next week. Potential remains for an enhancement of showers and thunderstorms over Hispaniola, with a slight risk of isolated flooding by late Sunday into Tuesday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends across the west Atlantic from 32N61W to 25N74W, then becomes weak and stationary to 23N80W. Scattered showers are along and within 45 nm ahead of the cold front mainly north of 29N, while another area of showers prevails within 75 nm south of the stationary front mainly west of 73W affecting the southern Bahamas. To the east, a 1018 mb surface high is centered near 26N59W. A pair of surface troughs extend across the central Atlantic with scattered showers. The first is from 28N46W to 24N49W, while the second one extends from 32N36W to 21N42W. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin with fair weather. The cold front will stall today and dissipate through Monday. High pressure NE of the area will prevail in the wake of the front supporting moderate to fresh return flow through next week. Expect pulses of fresh to strong winds N of Hispaniola mainly at night starting this evening. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA