000 AXNT20 KNHC 280517 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 117 AM EDT Sun Apr 28 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 13N17W to 05N20W to 03N25W. The ITCZ continues from 03N25W to the coast of Brazil near 00N49W. Scattered moderate convection is noted south of the monsoon trough between 13W-20W and along the ITCZ mainly west of 35W. GULF OF MEXICO... Weak surface ridging prevails across the basin with a 1017 mb high near the Florida Panhandle 29N84W. ASCAT data shows east gentle to moderate winds east of 89W and southeast moderate winds along the western Gulf. The high pressure will shift eastward into the western Atlantic Ocean through tonight. This will support moderate to locally fresh return flow through the next several days. Winds will pulse to fresh to strong NW of the Yucatan Peninsula at night with the daily development of troughing over the peninsula. High pressure NE of the basin will support moderate to locally fresh return flow through the next several days. Winds will pulse to fresh to strong NW of the Yucatan Peninsula at night with the daily development of troughing over the peninsula. CARIBBEAN SEA... Tail end of a weakening cold front is over western Cuba producing scattered showers and thunderstorms near the coast and interior western portion of Cuba. Scattered showers are in the SW Caribbean near the coast of Costa Rica and Panama and over the SE Caribbean near the ABC Islands. Mostly fair weather prevails elsewhere as mid-level ridging covers the western and central Caribbean south of 19N. Latest ASCAT pass shows moderate trades are over the E Caribbean with fresh trades over the central Caribbean south of 17N. The winds will pulse to fresh to strong in the S central Caribbean, expanding in coverage to the entire central Caribbean and offshore of Honduras, and in the lee of Cuba by early next week, as high pres N of the area builds southward. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will prevail, increasing early next week. Potential remains for an enhancement of showers and thunderstorms over Hispaniola, with a slight risk of isolated flooding by late Sunday into Tuesday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends across the west Atlantic from 31N63W to 24N77W, then becomes weak to 23N80W. Scattered showers are along and within 120 nm ahead of the front mainly north of 29N, while another area of showers prevails within 200 nm south of the front and west of 73W affecting the Bahamas. To the east, a surface trough extends from 31N36W to 20N44W with scattered showers mainly north of 28N. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin with fair weather. The cold front will stall front 28N65W to 27N72W to 23N79W late tonight, dissipating through early Mon. High pres NE of the area will prevail in the wake of the front will support moderate to fresh return flow through next week. Expect pulses of fresh to strong winds N of Hispaniola mainly at night starting on Sunday evening. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA