000 AXNT20 KNHC 271727 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 127 PM EDT Sat Apr 27 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1710 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 14N17W to 06N18W to 01N26W. The ITCZ continues from 01N26W to the coast of Brazil near 01S48W. Numerous moderate with embedded scattered strong convection is from 01N-05N between 10W-15W. Isolated moderate convection is seen elsewhere from 04S-06N between 06W- 49W. Additionally, scattered moderate convection is from 09S-04S between 23W-32W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front passes through the Florida Straits near 24.5N80W to 23N84W, weakening to 22N87W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are from 22N-24N between 85W-87W. The weakening cold front, slowly drifting across the far southeast Gulf of Mexico, will stall and dissipate through late today. Weak surface ridging prevails over the remainder of the basin stemming from a 1020 mb high near the Georgia/Alabama border near 33N85W. The high pressure will shift eastward into the western Atlantic Ocean through tonight. This will allow moderate to occasionally fresh SE return flow in the NW Gulf of Mexico through early next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... According to the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Table...MIATPTPAN/SXC01 KNHC...Guadelouple received 1.06 inches of rain during the 24 hour period ending at 27/1200 UTC. A weakening cold front is producing scattered showers and thunderstorms just north of the Yucatan Channel. Isolated showers are over portions of the NW Caribbean west of 80W and over the interior of Cuba. Isolated showers are in the SW Caribbean near the coast of Costa Rica and over the SE Caribbean near the ABC Islands. Mostly fair weather prevails elsewhere. Mid-level ridging covers the western and central Caribbean south of 19N. Latest ASCAT pass shows moderate trades are over the E Caribbean with fresh trades over the central Caribbean south of 16N. The winds will pulse to fresh to strong in the S central Caribbean Sea this weekend, expanding in coverage to the entire central Caribbean Sea, and offshore of Honduras, and in the lee of Cuba by early next week as high pressure to the north of the area builds southward. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will prevail this weekend, increasing early next week. Potential remains for an enhancement of showers and thunderstorms over Hispaniola, with a slight risk of isolated flooding by late Sunday into Tuesday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends across the west Atlantic from 31N69W to Nassau Bahamas to near Havana Cuba. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are along and within 120 nm ahead of the front east of 77W, including portions of the central Bahamas. The cold front will shift eastward, stall from Bermuda to the Straits of Florida by late today, and then dissipate through Sunday. High pressure will build across the waters north of 27N in the wake of the front. Expect pulses of fresh to strong winds N of Hispaniola mainly at night starting on Sunday evening. Currently for the rest of the Atlantic, a 1020 mb high is near 25N59W, and a 1019 mb high is near 32N52W with fair weather between the highs. A surface trough extends from 20N45W to 27N39W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen north of 24N between 34W-41W due to upper-level troughing north of 25N between 39W-52W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible within 60 nm of a line from 19N45W to 17N62W due to enhanced low-level convergence. Farther east, the gales have ended off the coast of Morocco. Strong NE winds prevail between Morocco and the Canary and Madeira Islands. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Hagen